Trump’s last approval decline (Episode 19) corresponded with the breaking news cycle wherein we learned the details of the Ukraine scheme for which he was eventually impeached. That decline was of above average severity (6 out of 10) on my ranking system, and was a significant drop of 2.10% points. But since that decline ended in late October 2019, his approval rating has fluctuated a lot while rising on average a total of 2.70%. In the week of his acquittal in early February 2020, there is talk of Trump having some of his best approval ratings (Gallup has him reaching a “personal best” of 49% in one poll). What is going on?
Over the 6 weeks after the last dip, he rose 1.60% points, but not consecutively. He would rise for a couple weeks, then drop slightly for a couple weeks, repeat. The decline adds up to .50% points. Then in the week of the House Impeachment vote, the approval jumps 1.50% in one week, reaching 43.3%. At the time I thought this jump was just noise since a jump of that much that quickly is rare. It has only happened four times (Weeks 33, 54, 67, 108). And sure enough, over the next three weeks the approval rating dropped exactly 1.50%, erasing the sudden gain. But then, starting in the week of January 12, the approval rating increased 1.60%.
Here is a graphic of this change:
As stated above, Trump’s approval has increased 2.70% on average between Week 144 and 158. This is a significant climb. However, this increase seems at this point (in the middle of Week 159) to be inconsistent, with lurches up and then down and then up again, as opposed to a steady, reliable increase in support. It may be noise, and the weeks after 159 may show another approval from of 1-1.5% and a return to Trump’s normal equilibrium of between 41-42%.
On the other hand, Trump’s approval may be entering a new, higher equilibrium in this 2020 election year. For three of the last eight weeks, Trump has been above 43%. This has not happened at any point in the past year, nor in Trump’s second year. In fact, Trump has not been above 43% since the first 8 weeks of his presidency (January-March 2017).
To sum up: The Ukraine scandal hurt Trump, but he has recovered any approval that was lost. The jury is still out on whether the complete impeachment process has helped Trump, but his approval rating has reached new heights since the formal proceedings began, even if it is too early to tell if those gains are solid and have staying power.