Organizing Principles

The Washington Post reports about an internal White House projection that said the virus toll would become less sever: “For Trump — whose decision-making has been guided largely by his reelection prospects — the analysis, coupled with Hassett’s grim predictions of economic calamity, provided justification to pivot to where he preferred to be: cheering an economic revival rather than managing a catastrophic health crisis.”

Also from the Washington Post story: The task force members with medical degrees — Birx, Fauci and Hahn, as well as CDC Director Robert Redfield, Surgeon General Jerome M. Adams and Brett Giroir, who leads the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps — splintered off in mid- to late-March and began meeting on their own almost daily, three senior administration officials said. Some in the “doctors group” were distressed by what one official dubbed the “voodoo” discussed within the broader task force.

This anecdote on the difficulty states are having getting test materials is telling: In Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan (R) quietly entered into negotiations with South Korea, with the help of his wife, Yumi, a Korean American. Exasperated with the lack of tests in his state, Hogan spent about 22 days arranging to procure 500,000 tests, negotiating with eight different Maryland agencies, the Korean embassy and officials at the State Department.
Once the FDA and U.S. Customs and Border Protection signed off on the deal, a Korean Air jet touched down at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport on April 18 to deliver the supplies. Hogan said he was worried federal officials would try to commandeer the tests, so he had Maryland Army National Guard members and Maryland State Police officers escort and protect the cargo.

Trump continued to talk about reopening this week: “But we have to get our country open again. People want to go back, and you’re going to have a problem if you don’t do it.” And this New York Times analysis: “For a president who had staked his legacy on an economic record that was shredded by the crisis, moving on may seem like the best way to salvage his chances for re-election this fall.”

Two White House aids tested positive by Friday, a military valet to Trump and Pence’s press secretary: White House officials initially asked reporters not to identify Ms. Miller as the aide who tested positive, but Mr. Trump blew the secret when he identified her publicly during his meeting with the congressional Republicans as “Katie” and “the press person” for Mr. Pence.

The White House shelved the CDC plan for reopening safely.

In Russia News

Barr’s DOJ dropped charges against Flynn on Thursday: The decision for the government to throw out a case after a defendant had already pleaded guilty was also highly unusual. Former prosecutors struggled to point to any precedent and portrayed the Justice Department’s justification as dubious. Here is what they said: “The government is not persuaded that the Jan. 24, 2017, interview was conducted with a legitimate investigative basis and therefore does not believe Mr. Flynn’s statements were material even if untrue.”In a possible sign of disagreement, Brandon L. Van Grack, the Justice Department lawyer who led the prosecution of Mr. Flynn, abruptly withdrew from the case on Thursday.

Also this: No career prosecutors signed the motion. Mr. Shea is a former close aide to Mr. Barr. In January, Mr. Barr installed him as the top prosecutor in the district that encompasses the nation’s capital after maneuvering out the Senate-confirmed former top prosecutor in that office, Jessie K. Liu.

Ignatius: There was always a deeper problem, one that still isn’t resolved. Why was the Trump administration so eager to blunt the punishment Obama gave to Russia for what we now know was gross interference in our presidential election? In his Dec. 29 expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats, Obama was trying to impose costs on an adversary. The evidence shows that Flynn wanted to reassure this same adversary and to avoid confrontation.

Frum on the stakes of Flynn’s lie to the FBI: And so Congress and the public remain unaware of what exactly was said to dissuade the Russians from retaliating in December 2016, and what—if anything—the Russians asked for in return. Congress and the public remain ignorant about whether Flynn acted on his own or was directed by President-elect Trump. Congress and the public remain uncertain whether Pence had himself been deceived when he delivered a false reassurance on CBS in January 2017—or whether he was part of the deceit…. Flynn’s release by Barr only strengthens the suspicion that back in December 2016, Flynn acted with Trump’s approval. Flynn’s release by Barr only strengthens the suspicion that Flynn and Kislyak were furthering a corrupt arrangement between Trump and Putin. Flynn’s release by Barr only strengthens the suspicion that the corrupt arrangement continues to this day.

Here is Lawfare’s take: The government’s 20-page brief is not an honest document—perhaps the reason that it is signed only by Timothy Shea, the interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia—and not a single one of the career prosecutors who worked on the case. That may also be the reason why Brandon Van Grack, the prosecutor who has worked the case from the beginning, moved to withdraw from the case entirely just hours before the Justice Department filed its motion.

Personal Log: Our three year old wore her mask for the first time (on a visit to the park) and she allowed me to wear mine without being scared. Earlier in the week she told me to put my mask in the car as we got out to walk, and we were the only ones unmasked on the trail around the reservoir. An elderly woman we met on the path gave us a wide berth and said I have an obligation to protect the community. She understood when I said my daughter was afraid of them. Mother’s Day was Sunday, while we had dinner with family, I saw one family in the neighborhood holding a visit between their front steps and the sidewalk.

–COVID-19 Cases / Deaths: 1,248,040 / 75,477

–Trump’s Job Approval: 43.4%

The White House announced on Monday that the nation would conduct 8 million tests by the end of May but that the Federal government would still only act in a supporting role.

That adds up to 2% of each state’s population per month, which experts say is not enough testing. Senator Patty Murray of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate Health Committee, said on Monday that Mr. Trump’s plan was meaningless: “This document does nothing new and will accomplish nothing new,” Ms. Murray said in a statement. “It doesn’t set specific, numeric goals, offer a time frame, identify ways to fix our broken supply chain, or offer any details whatsoever on expanding lab capacity or activating needed manufacturing capacity. Perhaps most pathetically, it attempts to shirk obvious federal responsibilities by assigning them solely to states instead.”

On Tuesday Trump signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to provide federal support of the meat production plants.

This week the death toll passed 56,000: The coronavirus has killed more Americans in 12 weeks than the Vietnam war killed in 19 years.

Personal Log: The state opened up the parks and golf courses on Friday. Masks and social distancing are required.

— COVID-19 Cases / Deaths: 1,092,815 / 64,283

–Trump’s Job Approval: 43.4%

Here is Haberman’s report on Trump’s recent support for lockdown protests: “he is road-testing a new turn on a familiar theme — veering into messages aimed at appealing to Americans whose lives have been disrupted by the stay-at-home orders… two other people close to the president, who asked for anonymity in order to speak candidly, said they thought the protests could be politically helpful to Mr. Trump, while acknowledging there might be public health risks.”

Frum puts it more starkly: “What if reopening leads to a surge in deaths that cannot be politically contained? In that case, Trump reverts to his Plan B: a culture war against Democratic governors and blue states.”

Here is a good piece on the Washington lobbying groups who are behind the protests, mainly old Tea Party groups Freedom Works and Tea Party Patriots.

This week the Governor of Georgia, taking cues from Trump, said he was re-opening his state, discussed with with Trump on the phone Tuesday night, and then Wednesday Trump said at a press briefing that he disagreed with the decision. The article is also a good list of states that are relaxing their lockdowns by the end of the month: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Florida, and Colorado.

The Senate passed a $484 billion deal Tuesday to replenish a small-business loan program that’s been overrun by demand and to devote more money to hospitals and coronavirus testing.

The House passed a new stimulus bill Thursday. Democrats got much of what they wanted: the small-business “got $320 billion in new funds, including $60 billion secured by Democrats to be funneled through smaller community lenders to reach businesses that can struggle to get loans from big banks. Also included were $60 billion to replenish exhausted Small Business Administration disaster relief accounts, $75 billion for hospitals and $25 billion for Covid-19 testing, plus a mandate that the Trump administration establish a strategy to help states vastly step up the deployment of tests throughout the country — a move Republicans had opposed.”

As an indication for how the daily press briefings are going, on Thursday Trump said this: So supposing we hit the body with tremendous whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light. And I think you said that hasn’t been checked but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so, that, you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me, so we’ll see. But the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute, that’s pretty powerful.

This New York Times piece checks in on how Trump is dealing with his own lock down:
-“President Trump arrives in the Oval Office these days as late as noon, when he is usually in a sour mood after his morning marathon of television.”
-“the president’s primary focus, advisers said, is assessing how his performance on the virus is measured in the news media, and the extent to which history will blame him.”
-“The daily White House coronavirus task force briefing is the one portion of the day that Mr. Trump looks forward to, although even Republicans say that the two hours of political attacks, grievances and falsehoods by the president are hurting him politically. Mr. Trump will hear none of it. Aides say he views them as prime-time shows that are the best substitute for the rallies he can no longer attend but craves.”
-“Mr. Trump rarely attends the task force meetings that precede the briefings, and he typically does not prepare before he steps in front of the cameras. He is often seeing the final version of the day’s main talking points that aides have prepared for him for the first time although aides said he makes tweaks with a Sharpie just before he reads them live. “

This from the New York Times on Trump’s election prospects: President Trump’s erratic handling of the coronavirus outbreak, the worsening economy and a cascade of ominous public and private polling have Republicans increasingly nervous that they are at risk of losing the presidency and the Senate if Mr. Trump does not put the nation on a radically improved course.

According to reporting by the New York Times: In recent weeks, the president’s family business has inquired about changing its lease payments, according to people familiar with the matter, which the federal government has reported amount to nearly $268,000 per month. … The younger Mr. Trump said the company was asking the G.S.A. for any relief that it might be granting other federal tenants.

Another 4.4 million people filed for unemployment, bringing the total to 26 million.

Personal Log: Relatives in New Jersey with prior health conditions got a note from their doctor to be tested; they went to a drive through testing cite, were initially told they could not be tested without a doctor’s note and an appointment, but after stating their conditions, were allowed to be tested: the nasal swab through the window. They received their negative results via phone call the next day.

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Trump Approval Rating: 43.4%

US COVID-19 Cases/Deaths with % increase: 865,585 (30.8%) / 48,816 (47.7%)

This unprecedented world-historical event has the potential to lead to significant changes in our society and politics. By mid-April 2020, as we closed out a month of lockdowns with the anticipation of another month or more of the same, the dim shadows of those changes began to take shape. This post will be the first in an ongoing series of monthly checkins, where I try to meet three objectives:

1. Stamp the current mood and moment based on polling and a round up of what is driving the news; this can be used to track continuity or change on a monthly basis.
2. Try to name the changes that appear to be occurring, or the changes that others (journalists, writers, pundits) suggest are likely to occur
3. Pose questions to be revisited each month; this will help establish prior assumptions and give some rigor to the analysis of the changes

Polling Round Up

Pew and Gallop did some much cited polls in mid-April showing strong majorities support the lockdowns:

Gallop Poll: 66% of respondents said they were concerned the lockdowns would be ended too quickly. as do 51% of Republican aligned voters, with 81% for Democrat aligned voters. This shows broad support for the lockdowns, since most Americans do not want them to go away. The question is how quickly this will shift as we enter the second month of national lockdowns. By itself the 30% partisan gap will be an interesting indicator of views of the lockdowns based on whether that gap closes, and which side moves toward the other: Democrats becoming more skeptical of the lockdowns or Republicans less skeptical; it’s possible Republicans will grow more skeptical, thus widening the gap.

Pew Poll: More Americans are worried about contracting COVID-19 than not worried by 14 points. Whether this split shrinks, widens, or remains the same will be an indicator of fear of the virus, and this support for efforts to fight it. The split for worry over financial effects is only 3 points (with a majority of 51% not worried and 48% are worried). How much this split increases and in what direction will be a good indicator of how the economy is affecting people.

As a baseline, according to fivethirtyeight’s polling aggregate, Americans concern over infection increased from 41% in mid-February to 74% in mid-April. Concern over the economy rose from 55% to 87% over the same period.

The country is evenly split on Trump’s response: 48.7% Disapprove vs. 47.6% Approve.

Scope of the Challenge

If the virus simply goes away, or the problems it poses to society become less sever, then the changes I hope to track and document here will not occur, or they will be less consequential. However, if the medical, economic and political crises intensify, so will the changes to society. Right now in mid-April 2020 experts think the the crisis will intensify.

This New York Times piece, based on interviews with 20 medical experts, does a good job illustrating just how hard it will be to get back to normal. Here are a few key details:

• China did not allow Wuhan, Nanjing or other cities to reopen until intensive surveillance found zero new cases for 14 straight days, the virus’s incubation period.

• Reopening requires declining cases for 14 days, the tracing of 90 percent of contacts, an end to health care worker infections, recuperation places for mild cases and many other hard-to-reach goals.

• The C.D.C. has about 600 contact tracers [in mid April] … China hired and trained 9,000 in Wuhan alone. Dr. Frieden recently estimated that the United States will need at least 300,000.
• Most American vaccine plants produce only about 5 million to 10 million doses a year… But if a vaccine is invented, the United States could need 300 million doses — or 600 million if two shots are required. And just as many syringes.

On testing: About 20 percent of those tested so far were positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high…. The researchers said that expanded testing could reduce the rate to 10 percent, which is the maximum rate recommended by the World Health Organization. In Germany, that number is 7 percent, and in South Korea, it is closer to 3 percent.

CDC Director Redfield is also saying that next winter we could be is worse shape because a resurgence of COVID-19 will correspond with regular flu season: As stay-at-home orders are lifted, officials need to stress the continued importance of social distancing, he said. They also need to massively scale up their ability to identify the infected through testing and find everyone they interact with through contact tracing. Doing so prevents new cases from becoming larger outbreaks.

Political Weirding

Politics is currently in flux in long term and short term ways. The long term flux has to do with the expansion of government to correct inequities laid bare by this crisis.

Dan Balz wrote in long form on this topic: “For the first time, many Americans are looking to government for their very economic survival. In time, that could make them look at government differently. … “I think it could be paradigm shifting,” said Janet L. Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, arguing that this crisis could generate greater public support for more spending on health care and safety net programs, which she favors. The coming battle over the size and scope of government has not been fully joined, and its shape remains uncertain. The first engagement will come during this fall’s presidential election.”

Jamelle Bouie is more to the point in this piece: “Should the health and economic crisis extend through the year, there’s a strong chance that Americans will move even further down that road, as businesses shutter, unemployment continues to mount and the federal government is the only entity that can keep the entire economy afloat. But this logic — that ordinary people need security in the face of social and economic volatility — is as true in normal times as it is under crisis. If something like a social democratic state is feasible under these conditions, then it is absolutely possible when growth is high and unemployment is low…. voters might begin to see this essential truth.”

The short term flux is how Trump and his allies will manage this crisis to keep from being tossed out of office this November.

As Jeremy Menchick says in this tweet thread: “Continued protests will distract the electorate. If the election is a fight between Trump vs Governors who refuse to open their economies, Trump doesn’t have to defend his record on COVID-19. He’s an advocate for liberty! [and} will help Trump rebuild his coalition of 2016.”

David Frum puts it more starkly: “What if reopening leads to a surge in deaths that cannot be politically contained? In that case, Trump reverts to his Plan B: a culture war against Democratic governors and blue states.” Or by blaming the Chinese, which GOP operatives are already trying to push, with some resistance from Trump and others in the Administration.

Questions Going Forward

When will the need for massive federal intervention in the crisis become apparent to most Americans, if at all? (Some Senate Republicans are already calling for more of a federal role in testing than the Trump administration has agreed to)

When will economic fears overcome fears of the virus? Will fears of the virus–and thus support for the lockdowns–fade?

Will the anti-lockdown protests grow to Tea Party size and cultural status? (It is pretty clear the astroturf protests are being funded and organized by a narrow set of Trump-aligned interest groups)

The criticisms of Trump’s early response continued this week… Here is Bill Kristol: February was the lost month to deal with the virus. April, we hope, will be the virus’s cruelest month. But February was the incubation period, the period of presidential misinformation and maladministration that made the disaster of March and April—and everything after—possible.

Throughout most of his press briefings this week Trump has raved against the narrative that he botched the early period of fighting the virus, of which trying to shift blame to the WHO is a part. On Tuesday, the president tried to shift the blame elsewhere, ordering his administration to halt funding for the World Health Organization and claiming the organization made a series of devastating mistakes

Trump announced the US was stopping funds for the WHO: “It is not yet clear how the United States will cut off money to the main international organization focused on fighting the pandemic, or whether Trump is setting conditions for a resumption of U.S. payments.”

The GOP establishment is looking to channel voter anger away from itself onto China, except Trump and some in the White House are balancing that strategy against wanting to continue to court China for favorable trade deals: From the Republican lawmakers blanketing Fox News to new ads from President Trump’s super PAC to the biting criticism on Donald Trump Jr.’s Twitter feed, the G.O.P. is attempting to divert attention from the administration’s heavily criticized response to the coronavirus by pinning the blame on China…. Republicans increasingly believe that elevating China as an archenemy culpable for the spread of the virus, and harnessing America’s growing animosity toward Beijing, may be the best way to salvage a difficult election.

At Wednesday’s press conference Trump announced a group of business leaders he said he had enlisted to help him reopen the economy: Advisers said the effort was aimed at building national momentum to reopen much of the country’s economy by next month…. But across the business world, there was private unhappiness with how the White House handled the announcement of the advisory council… Many of the chief executives urged the White House to focus more on mass testing… Some of the groups involved in the calls were notified in advance of Trump’s announcement, while others heard their names for the first time during the Rose Garden event.

Here is the New York Times take: Some business leaders had no idea they were included until they heard that their names had been read in the Rose Garden on Tuesday night by President Trump. Some of those who had agreed to help said they received little information on what, exactly, they were signing up for. And others who were willing to connect with the White House could not participate in hastily organized conference calls on Wednesday because of scheduling conflicts and technical difficulties.

According to this news report: most of the country is not conducting nearly enough testing to track the path and penetration of the coronavirus in a way that would allow Americans to safely return to work.

The small business loan program ran out of money this week, and it has been beset with problems since it launched: “Banks participating in the loan program were given wide discretion over who to lend to, and many chose only to lend to businesses they had existing relationships with. That left many small business owners — including those in minority and underserved communities — unable to borrow because they didn’t have prior ties to a lender or didn’t have a strong enough relationship with their existing lender.”

Here is a good summary of how the courts intervened in the Wisconsin election last Tuesday, and how despite the voting challenges of long socially distancing lines and closed polling places and uncounted absentee ballots, the liberal state supreme court justice was victorious. There is also evidence of an uptick on COVID-19 cases resulting from the election day.

There were small rallies in a few states against the lockdown orders, organized by conservative groups protesting Democratic governors and a few Republicans ones, or government or libertarian groups.

In tweets and statements at his Friday press conference, Trump encouraged the protests: His stark departure from the more bipartisan tone of his announcement on Thursday night suggested Mr. Trump was ceding any semblance of national leadership on the pandemic, and choosing instead to divide the country by playing to his political base.

On Thursday the White House released its plan to re-open the country. It is a measured approach that sets some general guidance on criteria before proceeding with a phased re-opening. However: he plan endorses testing, isolation and contact tracing — but does not specify how these measures will be paid for, or how long it will take to put them in place. On Friday, [April 17] none of that stopped the president from contradicting his own message by sending out tweets encouraging protesters in Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia to fight their states’ shutdowns.

According to New York Times interviews with 20 experts: “The scenario that Mr. Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings — that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full — is a fantasy, most experts said.”

The CDC and FDA admitted on Saturday that lab contamination led to the faulty early tests for COVID-19.

Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, is arguably the leading cause of death in the United States right now. The virus has killed more than 1,800 Americans almost every day since April 7, and the official toll may be an undercount.

Jobless claims continued to increase this week: In the last four weeks, the number of unemployment claims has reached 22 million — roughly the net number of jobs created in a nine-and-a-half-year stretch that began after the last recession and ended with the pandemic’s arrival.

Personal Log: Wearing masks became normalized this week. In the weeks before, you could go to the grocery store or Home Depot and see enough people not wearing masks that you felt a bit self conscious wearing one. No longer. Some places have signs requiring masks. The stores have someone counting customers in the door, and lines form as they limit the number who come in until others leave; we all try to stand six feet apart.

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Trump Approval Rating: 44%

COVID-19 Cases / Deaths: 661,712 / 33,049

This week the death count in the United States was the highest it has been, reaching nearly 2,000.

Data shows that Coronavirus is affecting African Americans disproportionately.

By the end of the week, Jobless claims were over 16 million. And here is a good piece on how the federal bureaucracy is struggling to follow up on its commitments made in the stimulus bills.

On Monday leaked transcripts and recordings of the Navy Secretary on board the Roosevelt: “Acting Navy secretary Thomas Modly told sailors Monday that the ousted captain of an aircraft carrier afflicted by the coronavirus either was “too naive or too stupid to command a ship,” or that he leaked a letter raising concerns about the service’s handling of the crisis to the media, Navy officials acknowledged.” Modly resigned on Tuesday.

Trump fired the IG responsible got overseeing the $2 trillion stimulus.

On Tuesday Wisconsin had a major election day where most had to vote because the courts did not allow an extension of absentee or mail in voting.

This week a number of publications published histories of the Trump Administration’s early response to the coronavirus.

Here is the Washington Post: “In reality, many of the failures to stem the coronavirus outbreak in the United States were either a result of, or exacerbated by, his leadership.”

The New York Times history is here: “These final days of February, perhaps more than any other moment during his tenure in the White House, illustrated Mr. Trump’s inability or unwillingness to absorb warnings coming at him. He instead reverted to his traditional political playbook in the midst of a public health calamity, squandering vital time as the coronavirus spread silently across the country.”

Frum wrote a long piece detailing all the ways Trump is responsible for the current crisis: “The utter unpreparedness of the United States for a pandemic is Trump’s fault. The loss of stockpiled respirators to breakage because the federal government let maintenance contracts lapse in 2018 is Trump’s fault. The failure to store sufficient protective medical gear in the national arsenal is Trump’s fault. That states are bidding against other states for equipment, paying many multiples of the pre-crisis price for ventilators, is Trump’s fault. Air travelers summoned home and forced to stand for hours in dense airport crowds alongside infected people? That was Trump’s fault too. Ten weeks of insisting that the coronavirus is a harmless flu that would miraculously go away on its own? Trump’s fault again. The refusal of red-state governors to act promptly, the failure to close Florida and Gulf Coast beaches until late March? That fault is more widely shared, but again, responsibility rests with Trump: He could have stopped it, and he did not.”

Meanwhile, Trump continues giving 1-2 hour daily press briefings. Even some Republicans think the daily briefings are not good for Trump: “White House allies and Republican lawmakers increasingly believe the briefings are hurting the president more than helping him. Many view the sessions as a kind of original sin from which all of his missteps flow, once he gets through his prepared script and turns to his preferred style of extemporaneous bluster and invective…. [and] that the White House was handing Mr. Biden ammunition each night by sending the president out to the cameras.”

Tom Nichols on Trump’s press conferences: “In his daily coronavirus briefings, Trump lumbers to the podium and pulls us into his world: detached from reality, unable to feel any emotions but anger and paranoia. Each time we watch, Trump’s spiritual poverty increases our own, because for the duration of these performances, we are forced to live in the same agitated, immediate state that envelops him. … With cable news constantly covering the pandemic, he seems to be going through withdrawal. He needs an outlet for his political glossolalia, or his constantly replenishing reservoir of grievance and insecurity will burst its seams.”

This point is confirmed by reporting in the New York Times: “One described him as “subdued” and “baffled” by how the crisis had played out. An economy that he had wagered his re-election on was suddenly in shambles. He only regained his swagger, the associate said, from conducting his daily White House briefings, at which he often seeks to rewrite the history of the past several months.”

Personal Log: Our governor closed all state parks this week. My daughter and I relied on them for long walks, either in the wooded trails of the Eagle Rock nature reserve or around the reservoir. I drove down the road that cuts through the middle of the reserve and saw all the parking spots blocked with gates, yellow tape and orange barrels, signs saying This Facility is Closed. However, many cars found two places to park and were crammed together more than they would have been if all the trail heads were open.

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Trump’s Approval Rating: 44.4%

Total U.S. COVID-19 Cases / Deaths: 492,416 / 18,559

Here is a New York Times piece on why testing was delayed for over a month: “Private-sector tests were supposed to be the next tier after the C.D.C. fulfilled its obligation to jump-start screening at public labs. … But Dr. Hahn took a cautious approach. He was not proactive in reaching out to manufacturers, and instead deferred to his scientists, following the F.D.A.’s often cumbersome methods for approving medical screening. … Even though researchers around the country quickly began creating tests that could diagnose Covid-19, many said they were hindered by the F.D.A.’s approval process. The new tests sat unused at labs around the country.”

Over the weekend Trump floated the idea of banning travel out of New York and New Jersey. Then: “President Trump said Saturday night that he would not impose a quarantine on New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, but would instead issue a “strong” travel advisory for the region to be enacted by the governors of the three states.”

On Sunday Trump also extended the social distancing guidelines for another month, dropping his Easter deadline from last week, and acknowledged for the first time that the deaths will be in the hundreds of thousands: “on Sunday, his mood seemed somber as he conceded the need for another month of collective pain. Citing figures from his advisers that showed that as many as 200,000 people could die from the virus even if the country took aggressive action to slow its spread, Mr. Trump said the restrictions must continue, even if it meant more sacrifice in the days ahead. “During this period, it’s very important that everyone strongly follow the guidelines. Have to follow the guidelines,” Mr. Trump told reporters…”

On a Monday call with governors who said they need more tests Trump said: “I haven’t heard about testing in weeks,” the president said. “We’ve tested more now than any nation in the world. We’ve got these great tests and we’re coming out with a faster one this week.” Reiterating his point, Mr. Trump added, “I haven’t heard about testing being a problem.” … The president has recently taken to pointing to the volume of tests that have been administered — a misleading figure because, according to health experts, the more relevant figure is how many people are being tested per capita. In that regard, the United States still lags well behind other nations like South Korea.”

On Tuesday Fauci and Birx said in a briefing that the virus could kill 100,000 and 240,000 Americans, in spite of the social distancing measures. Trump said: ““I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We’re going through a very tough few weeks,” Mr. Trump said, later raising his two weeks to three.”

Here is some analysis by Peter Baker of the Times based on the Tuesday press conference: “A crisis that Mr. Trump had repeatedly asserted was “under control” and hoped would “miraculously” disappear has come to consume his presidency, presenting him with a challenge that he seems only now to be seeing more clearly.
… Despite comparing it to the ordinary flu and saying for weeks that it would pass, the president insisted on Tuesday that he understood all along that it could be a killer of historic proportions…. The president did not explain on Tuesday why testing was so slow, nor did he explain why he waited to recommend canceling large events, closing businesses and schools and limiting group gatherings until after governors began ordering it themselves. Nor did he explain why he publicly declared that the country could reopen as early as Easter, only to reverse himself days later, if he understood all along how bad the situation could get.

Mr. Trump asserted that had he not blocked many travelers from China, the United States would have most likely reached closer to the maximum projected death toll of up to 2.2 million. “When you look at it could have been 2.2 million people died and more if we did nothing, if we just did nothing,” he said, then he and the country “have done a great job.” In effect, he seemed to be setting up the argument that any death toll below that will be a validation of his handling of the crisis.”

Some of the ventilators that Trump said the federal government has been holding and will deliver are defective: “what federal officials have neglected to mention is that an additional 2,109 lifesaving devices are unavailable after the contract to maintain the government’s stockpile lapsed late last summer, and a contracting dispute meant that a new firm did not begin its work until late January.”

The captain of a Navy ship who wrote a letter requesting his crew be allowed to evacuate amid an onboard Coronavirs outbreak was fired on Thursday and now has the virus himself: “According to reporting: Adm. Michael M. Gilday, the chief of naval operations, privately urged against dismissal and argued that, per usual Navy procedures, an investigation into what went wrong on the Roosevelt should be allowed to play out. But the acting Navy secretary, Thomas B. Modly, overruled the Navy’s top admiral, saying Captain Crozier had cracked under pressure.”

On Friday the CDC started recommending Americans wear face masks in public.

Here is a New York Times piece outlining Kushner’s role in coordinating the White House repose.

The only Trump golf course that remains open is in Virginia. The Secret Service signed a $45,000 contract this week for rented golf carts at the resort to protect a “dignitary.” The contract runs through September.

In other news: Late Friday night Trump fired the intelligence community’s Inspector General, Michael Atkinson. Atkinson was responsible to deciding that the Ukraine whistleblower’s complaint was legitimate and should be sent to Congress.

Personal Log: I took my first masked trip out doors on Saturday. I had to wait in a line at Home Depot and Whole Foods meant to stagger the number of people in the store. We all tried to stand six feet apart. About half of us had masks.
The city closed the South Mountain Reservation, but the kid and I got one last hike in the woods in the morning.

New Jersey cases/deaths: 29896 / 646

Essex County cases/deaths: 6067 / 69

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Trump’s Job Approval: 45.8%

US cases / deaths: 239,279 / 5,443

In the 2-3 weeks when the COVID-19 crisis became a reality for most Americans, President Trump saw a significant shift upward in his approval rating. He is currently at 45.8% approval in the fivethirtyeight.com aggregate of all approval polls. This is the highest he has ever been in his presidency, with the previous record of 44.8% in the second week after his Inauguration. On March 13, 2020 he declared a national emergency, and by March 21 he had hit 45.8% approval. He’s currently enjoying a bump of 3.5% points. (Note: I’m writing this in the first week of April, and things will undoubtedly change by the day.)

Trump has now had nine approval ratings bumps in his presidency. I define a bump with the following two criteria:

• an increase of 2% points or more
• the increase is sustained over a distinct period of time without significant interruption

The bumps range from 2% to 3.7% points (average 2.8%), and from 2 to 10 weeks (average 4.3 weeks). See the specs in the table below:

Trump’s Approval Bumps: A Short History

The first bump was Trump’s largest–3.7%–in January 2017 and was the results of the traditional inauguration honeymoon period. It ended as soon as it began, sliding into his first approval dip in Week 3, due in part to the Flynn firing and the travel ban fiasco.

He would not see another bump until the end of summer, but it was not due to anything positive he or his administration did. For two weeks at the end of August 2017 Trump was badly damaged by the fallout over the Charlottesville Unite the Right rally and his “both sides” reaction to it. He reached the lowest approval of his term up to that point–36.9%–and so the four weeks that followed amounted to an approval bump because his approval ticked up to a still-low 39.4%. The same thing happened with his third bump starting in December 2017. A Flynn guilty plea and Trump endorsing the accused pedophile Roy Moore for Senate in Alabama, who then lost, brought Trump’s approval to what is still the lowest of his presidency–36.4%. By the end of January 2018 his approval floated back up to 39.5%, which meant a 3.10% bump.

The fourth bump occurred soon after, perhaps as a result of the end of Trump’s first government shutdown, which Trump and his media tried to bill as the “Schumer Shutdown.” Here is how a recent article described it: “Senate Democrats took a politically risky stand, shutting down the government to insist on protections for hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants. Gleeful Republicans saw the obstruction strategy as a huge blunder and pounded the Democrats, who caved after only a few days of sharp attacks and cut a deal to reopen.”

The fifth bump is harder to explain because the news cycles were not filled with positive news for him, and he was not particularly low–40.3%–by the standards of his own approval rating, as high as he’d been since the start of the term. Over four weeks from April to May 2018, he reached 42.4%. I attribute this bump to what I call Trump’s 42% homeostasis rule.

This is the period when Trump attained 42% and basically stayed there for the rest of his term (as of this writing in April 2020). Before Week 67 his average approval was about 40%; after that week it was about 42%. The psychic shock of Trump had worn off; we became used to him. We also learned, rightly or wrongly, that the normalcy that returns after an extreme Trump action, for example firing of the FBI director, means that worst case scenarios don’t always materialize and our fears are not always justified. In this way Trump became normalized. And in the new normal, about 42% of the country are willing to say they approve of his job performance. So this fifth approval bump, occurring from April 22 to May 19, 2018, when there was a lot of Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels news, is when this normalization showed up in the approval rating.

The next two bumps are also a result of the 42% homeostasis rule. In the fall of 2018, during the build up to the Midterms, it took 10 weeks for Trump to climb from 39.9% to 42.9%. He had gotten that low due to a bad summer of news about Omarosa, Paul Manafort and snubbing John McCain’s funeral, among other mini scandals. He was also active on the stump in these weeks trying to paint the House democrats as friends to criminals and illegal immigrants, and some of his increase may have been generated by this contrast.

Similarly the seventh bump saw Trump rise from 39.3% to 43.7% in the winter of 2019. This bump corresponded with the end of the second and more protracted government shutdown.

It would be a full year before Trump enjoyed another approval bump. The eighth bump–41.8% to 43.8%–corresponded with the Senate Impeachment trial. While he took a significant approval hit in the weeks after his Ukraine scheme was first revealed in October 2019, the trial itself brought a series of oscillations, slight upticks and downticks. The Senate constituted a significant uptick probably due to the fact that Trump’s legal team could mount a public defense for the first time in the process.

The Coronavirus Bump

In the latter half of February 2020, Trump was solidly in the 43% range when the Coronavirus lockdowns began. Then after a two-week, 1% point dip, his ninth approval bump began, from 42.3% to 45.8%.

Here are some stats to put this bump in perspective:

Size: 2nd largest out of 9 (only the Inauguration bump was more)

Time Scale: 2nd quickest out of 9, jumping 2.6% in one week, and the full 3.5 over two (only the Inauguration bump was faster)

Start Point: 1st Best. All the previous bumps, including the inauguration, started from a lower baseline approval rating. This is relevant because it is harder to get a bump when your approval is higher, and easier when it is lower.

Duration: ??? We are in the third week of this bump. The average Trump approval bump sustains itself for about a month, with the exception of the Midterm bump that lasted three and a half months. As of this writing in the first week of April, the approval bump has stalled in its third week, sticking at 45.8% for two weeks in a row. Whether this rating will continue to increase or decline in the next few weeks will tell us more about the true shape of this ninth approval bump.

Read below for some other commentary on why the bump is happening now.

According to a report by Cook Political Report:

Democratic strategist tells me via email that while Trump’s “approval is up, particularly his approval on coronavirus response. BUT, the uptick is heavily driven by Democrats who (A) are not going to stay with him in the long haul; (B) likely driven by folks who WANT him to succeed, not people who actually think he is doing well.” 

One GOP pollster I spoke with this week argues that we should think of this not as a ‘rally’ around Trump, but to see it as more about latitude. That is,  voters who aren’t normally fans of the president (Democrats and many independents), are currently giving the president some ‘latitude’ to navigate this unprecedented crisis. However, there’s no evidence in the data, said this person, that they are turning into Trump voters.

And according to this Thomas Edsall piece, pols show danger signs for Trump:

A March 10-15 NBC News/Commonwealth Fund poll asked 1,006 adults “How much do you trust the President Trump to provide information about the coronavirus epidemic?” A majority, 53 percent, said they either had no trust at all (40 percent) or little trust (13 percent). 30 percent said they either completely trust (16 percent) or mostly trust (14 percent) the president.

“Trump’s overall approval rating drops among people who are more worried about catching the coronavirus, report severe local economic impacts, say their lives have been especially disrupted or know someone who’s caught the virus. He also has lower approval in states with higher per capita infection rates. … the results suggest that as the crisis deepens, the risks to views of his performance likely rise.”

This Vox piece points out that Trump’s bump is small compared to what world leaders and governors are earning right now, and in comparison with what presidents have historically earned during crises: “The most striking thing about Trump’s approval rating bump, however, is simply that it’s very small. Compared to other politicians in the US and abroad, he’s very bad at playing a unifying figure. As a politician, that weakness is offset by the way the Electoral College overweights his coalition. But given the public opinion equivalent of a layup, he’s falling far short of the hoop.”

Update: April 25, 2020 – The Cornavirus rally lasted only three weeks, beginning roughly March 15 and lasting until about April 4. The approval rating rose for two of those weeks, and then stayed stuck at the high point of 45.8% for the third week, before dropping. It is his third briefest bump, with six of the nine lasting more than four weeks.

The Senate’s relief bill failed on Sunday and again on Monday. Democrats objected to corporate give-aways and corruption concerns that Trump would give millions of dollars to his own resorts.

Trump changed his tone yet again on Monday, now pivoting to the idea that the economic harm is worse than the virus and that after 15 days the country will reopen. He set a date of April 12, Easter.

According to the Washington Post: “Trump predicted “we’re going to be opening our country” in a shorter time frame than months. He announced that the administration was developing new protocols to allow local economies outside of what he called “hot spots” of the coronavirus spread to resume activity and would make a decision at the conclusion of the current 15-day period.”

The Washington Post’s David Ferenhtold reports that the shutdown has closed six of Trump’s seven biggest earning properties: “That threatens to pull Trump in opposite directions, because the strategies that many scientists believe will help lessen the public emergency — like strict, long-lasting restrictions on movement — could deepen the short-term problems of Trump’s private business, by keeping doors shut and customers away.”

Also as Trump’s Sunday COVID-19 press conference: “Romney’s in isolation? Geeeeee – that’s too bad.” By Tuesday Romney reported that he tested negative but will remain quarantined on doctor’s advice.

Here is a New York Times media piece on how FOX News has handled the crisis: “There, for two crucial weeks in late February and early March, powerful Fox hosts talked about the “real” story of the coronavirus: It was a Democratic- and media-led plot against President Donald J. Trump. Hosts and guests, speaking to Fox’s predominantly elderly audience, repeatedly played down the threat of what would soon become a deadly pandemic.”

The Senate approved the $2 trillion relief package on Wednesday: “The legislation would send direct payments of $1,200 to millions of Americans, including those earning up to $75,000, and an additional $500 per child. It would substantially expand jobless aid, providing an additional 13 weeks and a four-month enhancement of benefits, and would extend the payments for the first time to freelancers and gig workers. The measure would also offer $377 billion in federally guaranteed loans to small businesses and establish a $500 billion government lending program for distressed companies…”

Here is a summary of some of the bill’s fine print and how it works to help businesses. For example: “loans from the federal government worth up to 2.5 times the firm’s monthly payroll that will not have to be repaid if the company uses them to keep paying employees during any coronavirus shutdowns.”

Of the $500 billion business loan program: “Rather than trying to negotiate that figure down, Democrats instead negotiated to have strings attached to it. Instead of giving the Trump administration broad discretion to make the loans, Schumer and Pelosi said there will likely be a new inspector general in the Treasury Department specifically to oversee these funds, as well as a congressional oversight panel to examine how the money is being used. Schumer’s office also announced they secured a provision that will “prohibit businesses controlled by the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and heads of Executive Departments from receiving loans or investments from Treasury programs.” The children, spouses or in-laws of lawmakers and executive officials also cannot receive these loans.”

By Friday the House approved and Trump signed the 2 trillion dollar stimulus bill.

Although the bill provided strict oversight to keep Trump from giving money to his and his allies’s businesses, he overrode that oversight in a signing statement: “Immediately after signing the historic $2 trillion coronavirus aid package, President Trump sought to curb oversight provisions in the bill by asserting presidential authority over a new inspector general’s office.

There was confusion out of the White House about the federal government ordering GM to produce more ventilators: “The White House had been preparing to unveil the G.M.-Ventec joint venture this week, and had hoped to announce that upward of 20,000 ventilators would be available in weeks, and that ultimately 80,000 would be produced. But the company complained that FEMA would not commit to spending the $250 million or so it would take to retool the factory. And with FEMA still evaluating a $1.5 billion proposal from those companies, Mr. Trump got angry at news reports that described the bureaucratic maneuvering. He soon blamed G.M.”

Also this: “Mr. Kushner focused on the medical equipment shortages, working with the National Association of Manufacturers, the Business Roundtable and groups of former and current executives who gathered under the hashtag #StopTheSpread. Some of those executives now say they are operating on their own and no longer coordinating with the White House because they could not get clear signals about what the government wanted, or when.”

A report from mayors of 200 major cities lists their needs: “More than 90 percent — or 192 cities — told the conference that they did not have an adequate supply of face masks for police officers, firefighters or emergency workers. In addition, 92 percent of cities reported a shortage of test kits to diagnose who has contracted the virus — a problem Mr. Trump has said in recent days was all but solved — and 85 percent said they did not have a sufficient supply of ventilators available to health facilities.

Roughly two-thirds of the cities said they had not received any emergency equipment or supplies from their state, the report said. And of those that did receive state aid, nearly 85 percent said it was not enough to meet their needs.

In total, the conference tabulated that cities needed 28.5 million face masks, 24.4 million other items of personal protection equipment, 7.9 million test kits and 139,000 ventilators.”

Here is some harrowing reporting from Tuesday at one New York City hospital: “Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other hospitals as it moves toward becoming dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700,” the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.

A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.”

Peter Wehner warns about Trump: “the coronavirus pandemic may lead to a rapid and even more worrisome psychological and emotional deterioration in the commander in chief. … As one person who consults with the Trump White House on the coronavirus response put it to me, “He has chosen to imagine the worst is behind us when the worst is clearly ahead of us. As the health-care and economic crises worsen, Trump’s hallmarks will be even more fully on display. The president will create new scapegoats. He’ll blame governors for whatever bad news befalls their states. He’ll berate reporters who ask questions that portray him in a less-than-favorable light. He’ll demand even more cultlike coverage from outlets such as Fox News. Because he doesn’t tolerate relationships that are characterized by disagreement or absence of obeisance, before long we’ll see key people removed or silenced when they try to counter a Trump-centered narrative. He’ll try to find shiny objects to divert our attention from his failures.”

Here is another report from a day in a New York City hospital. Among many other harrowing details: “The emergency room phone rang again. It was a man who lived down the street, offering handmade masks. “Are you selling them or donating them?” Dr. de Souza asked. Donating. She took his number and thanked him. The hospital has received gifts of gloves, food and a brown bottle with a mysterious liquid concocted by a local artisanal deodorant maker, which said it could be used to disinfect face shields. For now, that would be put aside.”

And this: “Dr. de Souza dreads that possibility, haunted by accounts of Italian doctors denying lifesaving resources to older adults or providing inadequate care at overrun hospitals. “I’m asking myself if that’s where we’re going,” she said on Wednesday night. Some patients who were screened and went home have since returned with difficulty breathing, needing to be put on ventilators. “It’s getting really, really more difficult every day.””

Here is a report about job vacancies in the Trump administration that are adding to the breakdown in government response. One of many examples: “One example is the Department of Veterans Affairs, which is legally meant to back up the nation’s health care system in an emergency. On Thursday, the Office of Inspector General at the department released a report detailing red flags in its preparedness for the crisis. The secretary, Robert L. Wilkie, has no experience in emergency management… Mr. Wilkie recently fired his second in command, who had worked in past disasters, and his head of emergency preparedness retired.”

3.3 million people filed for unemployment insurance this past week, a record number.

Personal Log: We kept our daughter home this week, and by Wednesday the governor ordered that day care centers can only remain open to serve first responders starting April 1. You see a lot of kids and parents outside riding bikes and walking. I’ve seen more dads pushing strollers in these two weeks than I have ever seen here or anywhere. The nature reservation is also full of families. Some of them keep their sidestepped distance from you as you pass, but most don’t.

Our Trump-supporting Red State relatives are now taking the virus seriously, including following their states social distancing guidelines.

New Jersey cases/deaths: 8,825 / 108

Essex County: 826 positive cases

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Trump’s Job Approval: 45.8%

US Covid-19 cases/deaths: 85,356 / 1,246