Organizing Principles

Andrew McCarthy continues to argue that the Cohen/Clifford investigation is Trump’s true danger, not the Russia investigation: “It seems evident that prosecutors are investigating on the theory that Clifford, McDougal, and perhaps others were defrauded or extorted into silence.”

The New York Times quoted Roger Stone and Sam Nunberg about how badly Trump treated Cohen, and that he might turn on Trump in the coming legal proceedings. This story solicited an angry Trump tweet.

One day after Nikki Haley said more Russian sanctions were coming, the White House said there would be no sanctions at this time: Trump “was upset the sanctions were being officially rolled out because he was not yet comfortable executing them, according to several people familiar with the plan.”

A piece of thorough reporting by the Washington Post that details how Trump was angry he had authorized 60 Russian expulsions when France, Britain and Germany expelled far less. He wanted each country to expel equal numbers so not to seem like the US was taking the lead against Putin.

On Monday a judge in the Southern District of New York ruled that Trump’s team would not get first access to the Cohen documents. It was also revealed that Cohen only had three clients in the previous years, and one of them was Sean Hannity. It is unclear at this point if this is significant.

Big-spending members of Trump’s cabinet are in the news this week. Zinke is criticized for protecting wildlife areas from his home state of Montana while opening up similar areas in other states. He also was cited by the GAO for taking a flight to give a speech for a donor that was not related to his official duties. The GAO also said Pruitt broke the law by installing a $46,000 phone booth in his office. Weirdly, one of the upgrades to his car was bullet-proof seat covers.

Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un, and Trump is talking about a Korean peace treaty. They are scouting five sites where Trump and Kim will meet in May or June.

Reporters for the New York Times got Homeland Security to admit they have separated 700 children from their parents (or other adults) who came to the US boarder seeking asylum.

In Russia News:

Sunday night, Comey’s first interview aired on ABC. Here is what the New York Times reported on the 5 hour interview (only one hour was televised). Here is the full transcript. 

Book reviews were published in the New York Times and on the front page of the Washington Post.

Much of the media has focused on Comey’s comments about Trump’s body, or his Comey’s 2016 role. Ben Wittes implores us to focus on the most important part of Comey’s story: the reason Trump fired him: “A tyranny cannot have independent law enforcement and remain an effective tyranny. A would-be tyrant thus must purge government of law enforcement that would be independent. He simply must get the law enforcement apparatus under his control—that is, protecting his friends and himself and arrayed against his enemies. I did not know who would be the Trump administration’s attorney general or deputy attorney general. But I knew that Trump would not be able to get law enforcement under his control with Comey in office

House GOP members are beginning to assert themselves in the Russia investigation by pressuring Rosenstein, including threatening impeachment for not turning over DOJ documents.

Lawrence Tribe tweeted as a response to this article: “I worry that Trump’s allies in Congress will trump up a contempt citation against Rosenstein (recall Holder!), or even a bill of impeachment against him, to give Trump an excuse to fire him.”

Republicans in Congress are saying that the released Comey memos prove there was not obstruction because the memos do not show the Comey felt intimidated. No one is really taking that seriously, and they are laying pretty quiet. If there was anything in the memos that could be spun as pro-Trump they would be crowing about it. Only Trump opponents are crowing.

Here is Frum arguing that the House GOP thought this would be good fro Trump (like the Nunes memo) because they operate inside a closed information bubble where they convince themselves that their narrative is the only one people will see.

Sessions told White House lawyers that he may resign if Trump fires Rosenstein.

Rudy Giuliani joined Trump’s legal team. It is a short term move to help smooth things over with Mueller, whom Giuliani had worked with for many years.

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Trump’s Job Approval: 40.3%

 

I’ve loved Maurice Ravel’s Bolero since I was a child. It played at my wedding just before we marched down the aisle, but the 15 minute piece has taken on a new meaning for me since I was listening to it in the car when some recent revelation in the Russia Investigation came across the news wires.

Now, in my ear, Bolero sounds like the calvary coming to the rescue. The White Knight leading the charge takes his time at first. The build up is slow and methodical. No sudden, hasty movements. Just a calm and deliberate increase in volume and ratcheting up of pressure. Then, when he is good and ready, the volume spikes ever so slightly and the tempo increases. The drums roll on. It is a noble sound, even a bit heroic.

Mueller, of course, is the White Knight. Full disclaimer: he may find no wrongdoing by Trump or Trump’s people, and if that is the case we will all accept the findings. But no matter the outcome, the law will have won, and the institution of justice will have proven resilient and uncorrupted because Mueller did his job according to the rules.

So here is the Mueller Investigation set to Ravel’s Bolero. We are currently in the loud part of the piece, but let’s go back to the beginning. This clip represents May 17, 2017, the day Rosenstein appointed Mueller, to October 30, the day of the Manafort Indictment. Recall that during this time, the Special Counsel’s office took no public action, and Mueller made not one public peep. But the drums of justice were building all the while…

On Monday the FBI raided the home and office of Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen. New York prosecutors were tipped off about some criminal activity by Mueller. Early reports describe bank fraud, tax documents, and election law violations related to the Stormy Daniels case.

On Tuesday there was news that the raid was seeking payments to two women, Clifford and McDougal.

Also on Tuesday, the Times reported that Trump was close to firing Mueller in December. And CNN reported that Trump is now talking about firing Rosenstein after the Cohen raid. 

An important Lawfare analysis of why Trump’s firing of Rosenstein would be evidence of corrupt intent.

Here is Ben Wittes on the significance of the Cohen raid. And here is Andrew McCarthy. Both agree this is not good for Trump at all. 

Some stories came out that indicate what kind of bugs are crawling out of the rock overturned by the Cohen raid. One is an AP News story about a door man that the National Inquirer made a “catch and kill” payment to who was sharing a rumor that Trump had fathered an illegitimate child. Another is by a writer raising questions about how the Access Hollywood tape is part of the FBI’s interest in the raid.

The CBO announced this week that the federal deficit will reach one trillion by 2020.

Unrelated–except through irony–Paul Ryan announced his retirement on Wednesday.

Erik Erickson quotes a GOP congressman who gives a profanity-laced tirade against Trump that has to be read to be believed. It’s like he is venting his frustration at having to carry Trump’s water, and going on TV to defend him, and getting only headaches in return.

Trump gave a full pardon to Scooter Libby, in part to send a signal, because of the narrative that Libby was victim to an overzealous special prosecutor.

Friday night, a coalition of US and European forces conducted a massive airstrike against Syrian chemical weapons targets. On Saturday Trump tweeted “Mission Accomplished.”

In Russia news:

Beyond the Cohen raid, and the talk of firing Rosenstein this week, the New York Times reported an odd payment to Trump of $150,000 from a Ukrainian during the campaign.

Trump’s Job Approval: 40.8%

Scott Pruitt announced that Obama era limits on gas mileage will be eased in the coming months. Though there are secret negotiations with California and the EPA to actually keep them, so this week may be a Trump tactic of starting with a strong opening bid.  

Every day this week saw several stories about Pruitt misconduct in office: he rented a DC apartment from a lobbying firm that also serves an oil company that Pruitt’s EPA cleared to extend a pipeline.

The condo story got stranger as the week progressed, from a story about how Pruitt’s security detail had to break down the door to get to him, and that the landlords had to force him out by changing the locks on him after he overstayed his lease.

The Times and The Post have stories about strange spending habits of Pruitt–from a bullet proof desk to a secure communication closet. Also, five close aids who confronted him about his spending and security requests have been fired or reasigned.

Stocks dropped further this week on fears of a trade war with China. Industry leaders are pushing back against the White House.

The White House appears split and trying to walk back it’s trade war talk with China, saying the tariffs may never go into effect. They are reacting to stock market drops and push back from industry.

The Homeland Security Secretary announced on Wednesday that the National Guard will be sent to the Mexico boarder immediately to support boarder patrol agents. However, there are no details about how many, when and where because the boarder states’ governors have to agree to the plan.

Mike Allen wrote a column titled Time for Extreme Worry in which he reports on people close to Trump saying they are worried about the level of chaos he is ushering into his White House.

Johnathan Chait has a nice round up of recent stories about Trump’s change of behavior, including one about how his aids are sending people on Judge Jeanine Pirro to communicate points to him since he won’t sit for briefings.

In Russia News:

In Trump’s congratulatory call last week he proposed inviting Putin to the White House.

The Washington Post reported this week that last month Mueller’s team told Trump’s lawyers that Trump is under investigation but not a criminal target. That is getting most of the headlines. But another new piece of news is that Mueller is compiling reports that Rosenstein hope to release to the public: “They’ve said they want to write a report on this — to answer the public’s questions — and they need the president’s interview as the last step.”

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Trump’s Job Approval: 40%

On Sunday Trump’s new lawyer Mr. diGenova resigned from the job after only a week, reportedly due to conflict of interest issues. Here is a good refresher on the history Trump’s lawyers while in the White House.

There were more reports of lawyers who had been contacted but declined to work for Trump.

The 60-Minutes Stephanie Clifford interview aired Sunday night. Trump has so far been restrained from attacking her publicly.

Jonah Goldberg explains why: Trump’s superpower is shamelessness and it has met his match with an opponent is a porn star. There is nothing he can say that would succeed as a “sick burn” or a “counter punch”.

The Trump Administration announced they are adding a citizenship question to the census, which experts worry will result in an undercounting of US residents in 2020.

In Russia News:

The Trump Administration expelled 60 Russians from the US in a move that was joined by many EU countries as a response the the attack in Britain.

Several stories came out this week about the schism between the administration’s increasingly strong retaliation against Russia and Trump’s refusal to publicly go after Putin.

NBC News even reported that while green-lighting some anti-Russia policies, he instructed aids not to talk about them publicly.

The New York Times, with the Washington Post confirming, reported that Trump had discussions with his lawyers last year about pardoning Flynn. The implication is that this would protect the White House from whatever Flynn might reveal during the course of the investigation. Trump’s lawyers deny this.

A court document in the Mueller investigation revealed this week that Rick Gates was in repeated contact with a former Russian intelligence officer in the final weeks of the campaign. This is what he lied about to the FBI that got him charged with a crime. This is coming out now because of the document but it was known at the time.

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Trump’s Job Approval: 40.5%

 

Over the weekend there were articles written about Trump’s chaos management style. Habberman continues the thread of her recent reporting that Trump is feeling comfortable and emboldened in his role, which is leading him to be bullish on Mueller. Some aids are saying “that Mr. Trump does not understand the job the way he believes he does, and that they fear he will become even less inclined to take advice.”

Here is Jonah Goldberg in National Review crowing a bit about how Trump-skeptic-supporters argued last year that Trump would be guided (contained) by the “adults” around him–no more. 

And Coppins in The Atlantic about Trump sowing chaos by applying Reality TV rules to the White House:  “It is about his authority—and there is little Trump loves more than performing authority.”

Shortly after Trump called Putin to congratulate him for his recent election win, the White House leaked that Trump had briefing notes that said in all caps DO NOT CONGRATULATE. 

This David Graham speculation sums up why trying to stay informed about what is really going on is so crazy making in the Trump era. First there is news that Trump called Putin to congratulate him on his election win, and he did not raise concerns over the recent attack in England or 2016 election meddling. Next there are reports about the DO NOT CONGRATULATE briefing notes. Then there are reports that White House aids, Kelly in particular, are rattled and outraged by the leak. Graham speculates that it is convenient that the story was moved from Trump being uncritical of Putin (yet again) to a story about Trump staffing and leaks. Is it possible someone (Kelly, Trump himself?) leaked the cards to change the story? Who knows?

On Thursday Trump replaced national security advisor McMaster with John Bolton. This was a more orderly process than firing Tillerson since he called McMaster hours before the announcement, and McMaster has been planning his exit for some weeks because stories of his relationship with Trump was undercutting his ability to do his job.

Still the move is being characterized as a “snap decision” because aids thought the change would not happen for several weeks. CNN reported that the sudden change was made in part to wrestle news cycle away from two women doing interviews with week about affairs they had with Trump: Karen McDougal and Stephanie Clifford.

Michael Gerson suggests a simpler explanation: “In this case, an aide close to the president is expressing panic. He or she cannot explain the hold that Putin has over Trump. This leak is a cry for help from within the White House itself.”  

Three good pieces about the implications of Bolton and Pompeo joining the team. Peter Baker writes about Bolton’s history as a hawk and how the Bush team soured on him in the second term.

David Sanger writes: “Mr. Bolton’s ascension to national security adviser, replacing Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, creates the most radically aggressive foreign policy team around the American president in modern memory.”

Greg Jaffe has some tidbits about how McMaster was usually rebuffed by Mattis, with the implication that there will be a new dynamic Mattis will have to navigate with Bolton. 

On Friday Trump threw Washington into a few hours of chaos. His White House had worked with Congress to pass a 1.3 trillion spending bill to keep the government funded; he saw push back on FOX news and tweeted a veto threat, taking everyone by surprise. It seems everyone from Paul Ryan to Mattis had to get involved to walk Trump back. He did sign it but only after complaining that it was a terrible bill, that he was forced into it, and that he will never sign a bill like this again.

In Russia news:

Trump assailed Robert Mueller by name in his tweets for the first time. Sunday, several Republicans from McCain to Graham to Paul Ryan went on record urging the investigation to continue “unimpeded.”

Vox has a useful explain of the several powerful factors that is keeping Trump from firing Mueller.

Trump’s lead lawyer John Dowd resigned Thursday because he disagreed with the President’s decision to sit down with the Mueller team for an interview. His replacement “the former United States attorney in Washington, Mr. diGenova has been on television in recent years more than he has been in court.”

There was news about how the Trump campaign did guide Papadopoulos more than previously known.

And the Daily Beast reported that Guccifer 2.0, who hacked the DNC emails, was a Russian intelligence official. If accurate, this takes meddling of 2016 election to Putin’s desk for the first time.

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Trump’s Job Approval: 40.7%

 

Britain publicly accused Russia of attempting to murder via nerve agent one of its spies on British soil last week. The nerve agent was exposed to hundreds of civilians. Teresa May sent a very strong signal on Monday that Britain would retaliate, with a Tuesday night deadline for Russia to respond.

May then responded by kicking some Russians out of England. And there is talk of seising  Russian oligarch assets in London. Nikki Haley did strongly condemn the attack: “We take no pleasure in having to constantly criticize Russia,” she said, “but we need Russia to stop giving us so many reasons to do so.”

After first showing reticence, the Trump Administration made three anti-Russia moves this week. They make a joint statement with the UK against Russia attacks on British soil. They levied sanctions against Russians for the 2016 Russian election interference. And they accused Russia of cyberattacks on US power plants.

David Frum lists all the things a normal US administration would do to help Britain, which Trump did not do. In the first few days, the Trump White House refused to stand with Britain against Russia. By the end of the week, Frum was still not impressed: It’s progress but not strong enough.

On Tuesday, Trump fired Tillerson via tweet. He called him three hours later.

The State Department through the undersecretary of of public diplomacy released an official statement that read in part: “The secretary did not speak to the president, and is unaware of the reason.” This person was then fired by the White House contradicting them.

Frum continues to think it is highly suspicious that Tillerson was fired after expressing support for May’s announcement.

Pompeo replaces Tillerson at State, if he is confirmed by the Senate. Gina Haspel is in line to replace Pompeo: “As a clandestine officer at the Central Intelligence Agency in 2002, Gina Haspel oversaw the torture of two terrorism suspects and later took part in an order to destroy videotapes documenting their brutal interrogations at a secret prison in Thailand.”

Pro-Publica soon retracted some of its reporting that Haspel was Chief of Base in Thailand, and that she was present for a high number of water boarding sessions. She was present for at least three, and she still had a role in destroying the tapes. Democrats may support her nomination because she is not a Trump loyalist.

TV host Larry Kudlow has been hired to replace Gary Cohn. By the end of the week there were rumors that McMaster, Sessions and Kelly would be fired by Friday afternoon. Axios reports that Kelly admitted that Trump is sowing rumors about staff firings by dropping names to people he knows will then tell reporters.

This week the sense of a shift is very real. Douthat explains: “But if it eventually does get worse, a week like this one, with a president chafing against his bonds and snapping some of them, is how a descent from farce to tragedy might begin.”

A Democratic won a House race in a deep red Pennsylvania district that Trump won by 20 points last year.

In a recording of Trump at a fundraiser, he made many strange claims, including that he admitted he did not know that the US had a trade deficit with Canada but he told Trudeau that we did: “I said, ‘Wrong, Justin, you do.’ I didn’t even know. … I had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’” He also boasted that he will end NAFTA and pull troops out of South Korea if they don’t end our trade deficit with them. A reporter on Twitter later pointed out that Canadian officials do not know what meeting Trump is referring to, and suspect Trump is creating a composite of several phone calls and in-person meetings.

For the first time Trump personally put his name to the legal case against Stephanie Clifford. He and his lawyers moved to have the case put in federal court, and said Clifford owes up to $20 million for breaking her nondisclosure agreement.

In Russia News:

The House Intelligence Committee ended its investigation of Russia’s involvement with the 2016 election. They found no wrong doing by the Trump campaign, and disagreed with the intelligence community that Russia tried to help Trump win.

Meuller has subpoenaed the Trump organization for documents related to Russian business deals. It is notable that Meuller’s team skipped over the step of requesting the documents and went right to a subpoena.

Sessions fired Andrew McCabe Friday night, just a few days before his retirement from the FBI. In a statement McCabe said the firing was to discredit him as a witness in the Meuller investigation.

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Trump’s Job Approval: 40.2%

On Monday, Congressional Republicans led by Paul Ryan are pushing back hard on Trump’s tariff idea. As of Monday they are optimistically thinking that Trump will back down or soften his tariff plan.

The Washington Post detailed how some in the Trump Administration worked for and against the tariffs, with Trump only digging in harder, and Gary Cohn announcing his resignation.

There is a common assumption, even expressed in the New York Time’s story of Cohn’s exit, that many of the people in the Trump Administration who have a “steady hand” and act as a moderating force are leaving (ie Porter, Hicks, Cohn). The only thing that will prove this assumption correct is if the Administration becomes more erratic and chaotic in the weeks ahead. It’s possible they will carry on like they have all along, or things might get worse. Time will tell.

David Frum takes an unconventional take that Cohn did a public service by resigning, in part because it will illuminate the economic direction of the Trump Administration when Trump selects a replacement.

Trump officially authorized the tariffs on Thursday, with some wiggle room for allies to negotiate. This news was overtaken a few hours later when Trump said he was going to meet with Kim Jong Un. 

In North Korea news, reading about how the meeting between Trump and Kim was hatched it is hard not to feel like this is all for show (on both sides) and won’t amount to much change in actual policy. Some suspect the meeting will never actually take place. But considering the stakes, it is impossible to downplay the possibilities for good or ill.

Here is a good blow-by-blow about how North and South Korea brought the plan to Trump. He called the South Korean delegation into the Oval Office and accepted the offer without hesitation and without consulting with key players like Tillerson.

Finally, Stephanie Clifford sued Trump this week to get out of her nondisclosure agreement. It could open Trump up to Bill Clinton-style depositions.

In Russia News:

The Times reports this week that George Nader is cooperating with Meuller. He was present for meetings between Trump and Putin representatives.

Jane Mayer in the New Yorker has a profile of Michael Steele, which is a good timeline of the dossier, Russian interference before and after the 2016 election. One new piece of news is that Steele briefed Meuller on a Kremlin source that claimed Putin influenced Trump to not pick Romney as his secretary of state.

Lawfare has some legal speculation about what theory of the law Meuller may be using to prosecute Russian interference. This may be useful as events develop.

There was a report about Russia’s role in Syria this week that illustrates one reason why Putin benefits from not having Hillary Clinton in the White House: “By sticking around, Russia expects to eventually hammer out some peace agreement with Washington that will cement the Kremlin’s enhanced role in the Middle East.”

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Trump’s Job Approval: 40.7%