Week 84: August 26-September 1

In the weekend of McCain’s death the White House prepared “an official statement that gave the decorated Vietnam War POW plaudits for his military and Senate service and called him a “hero,” according to current and former White House aides.” But Trump nixed it and instead sent a tweet about the McCain family: “My deepest sympathies and respect go out to the family of Senator John McCain. Our hearts and prayers are with you!”

Flags at the White House were lowered to half staff over the weekend, but they were back up Monday morning. Typically there is a presidential proclamation that keeps the flags at half staff until internment, which will be Sunday. This is supposed to be done for any senator who dies in office. There was no such proclamation for McCain.

By Monday afternoon, after being hounded by reporters and veterans groups, Trump issued the a statement–not the formal proclamation–and lowered the White House flags. All he said about McCain was this: “Despite our differences on policy and politics, I respect Senator John McCain’s service to our country.”

Trump continues to attack Sessions publicly, and the Washington Post reports that he has privately talked about firing him. What has changed is that Republicans in the Senate are no longer saying they would not support such a move, but are resigned to it. Lindsay Grahm was the first to suggest in a public comment that Trump may fire Sessions after the midterms, and others then went on the record saying it may be inevitable.

Trump tweeted that McGahn will be leaving his post this fall without first telling McGahn.

The Trump State Department is now denying passport renewals of American citizens who were born in Texas counties that border Mexico. The official denials say that the government doubts these people were born in the United States.

The New York Times reported that Cohen and Trump were attempting to purchase rights to all stories that the National Enquirer owned on Trump going back to the 80s, not just the McDougal story. The deal fell through in part because Pecker expected to be reimbursed for the McDougal payment but Trump balked at that.

Ian M. Smith, an employee of Homeland Security quit this week after it was revealed that he regularly communicated with White Nationalist groups. His emails included Nazi language against Jews. Here is part of his job description: “He joined the department as an immigration policy analyst in 2017 and focused on refu­gee issues and temporary worker visas, according to former colleagues. He also worked on an effort, led by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, to expand the “Public Charge” rule by penalizing more legal immigrants who use tax credits or accept government benefits.”

McCain’s funeral was held on Saturday in Washington National Cathedral. All of the speakers–Meghan McCain, Joe Lieberman, Henry Kissinger, George W. Bush and Barack Obama–spoke to McCain’s love of America as an idea that needed to be defended, and American ideals needed to be vouched for all over the world. Many of the speaker’s spoke about current negative trends in our politics, Trump in particular, though no one spoke the name of the current President who was conspicuously uninvited. All the presidents and vice presidents and first ladies going back to the Clinton administration were present. Several from Trump’s administration were present including Kelly, Mattis, Cushner and Ivanka.

The eulogies were powerful testaments to John McCain’s vision, and a rebuke to how politics has changed in recent years.

Joe Lieberman: “The American people saw this great quality most clearly during the 2000 campaign when the woman made an offensive statement against then senator Barack Obama. To me what was most impressive about John’s reaction was that it was pure reflex. It was who john was. he didn’t need to consult anyone. He immediately defended his opponent’s name and honor and thereby elevated for that moment our politics and made us a more perfect union.”

Henry Kissinger: “None of us will ever forget how even in his parting John has bestowed on us a much needed moment of unity and renewed faith in the possibilities of America. Henceforth, the country’s honor is ours to sustain.”

George W. Bush: “Perhaps above all, John detested the abuse of power. He could not abide bigots and swaggering despots. There was something deep inside him that made him stand up for the little guy – to speak for forgotten people in forgotten places.”

Barack Obama: “But he did understand that some principles transcend politics. Some values transcend party. He considered it part of his duty to uphold those principles and uphold those values. John cared about the institutions of self government, our Constitution, our Bill of Rights, rule of law, separation of powers, even the arcane rules and procedures of the Senate. He knew that in a nation as big and boisterous and diverse as ours, those institutions, those rules, those norms are what bind us together, give shape and order to our common life. Even when we disagree, especially when we disagree, John believed in honest argument and hearing our views. He understood that if we get in the habit of bending the truth to suit political expediency or party orthodoxy, our democracy will not work. That’s why he was willing to buck his own party at times, occasionally work across the aisle on campaign finance reform and immigration reform. That’s why he championed a free and independent press as vital to our democratic debate.”

“John understood, as JFK understood, as Ronald Reagan understood, that part of what makes our country great is that our membership is based not on our blood line, not on what we look like, what our last names are, not based on where our parents or grandparents came from or how recently they arrived, but on adherence to a common creed that all of us are created equal, endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights.”

“And we laughed with each other, and we learned from each other. And we never doubted the other man’s sincerity or the other man’s patriotism, or that when all was said and done, we were on the same team. We never doubted we were on the same team. For all of our differences, we shared a fidelity to the ideals for which generations of Americans have marched and fought and sacrificed and given their lives. We considered our political battles a privilege, an opportunity to serve as stewards of those ideals at home and do our best to advance them around the world.”

“So much of our politics, our public life, our public discourse can seem small and mean and petty, trafficking in bombast and insult and phony controversies and manufactured outrage. It’s a politics that pretends to be brave and tough, but in fact is born of fear. John called on us to be bigger than that. He called on us to be better than that…. That’s perhaps how we honor him best, by recognizing that there are some things bigger than party or ambition or money or fame or power, that there are some things that are worth risking everything for. Principles that are eternal. Truths that are abiding.”

Meghan McCain was the first speaker at the funeral service, and she breathed fire.

Here is McCain’s farewell statement to America: “To be connected to America’s causes — liberty, equal justice, respect for the dignity of all people — brings happiness more sublime than life’s fleeting pleasures…. ‘Fellow Americans’ — that association has meant more to me than any other. I lived and died a proud American. We are citizens of the world’s greatest republic, a nation of ideals, not blood and soil. We are blessed and are a blessing to humanity when we uphold and advance those ideals at home and in the world. … We weaken our greatness when we confuse our patriotism with tribal rivalries that have sown resentment and hatred and violence in all the corners of the globe. We weaken it when we hide behind walls, rather than tear them down, when we doubt the power of our ideals, rather than trust them to be the great force for change they have always been.

Trump’s Job Approval: 40.3%

Trump’s 12th Approval Dip has started

We now know enough to say that Trump is two weeks into another significant dip in his approval rating. In the first week his approval increase stalled by dropping .10%. In the second week there was a much steeper drop of 1.60%. If the dip ended today, a drop of 1.70% bottoming out at an approval rating of 40.3% would mean this episode has a score of 5 out of 10 relative to all previous Trump approval dips. He has not had a dip this sever since January 2018 (Episode 8 in my ranking system). And if you just look at amount of the decline (without factoring where he is bottoming out) he has not dropped this much since November-December 2017 (Episode 7).

Why is this happening now? These approval dip episodes almost always correspond to a convergence of  multiple negative storylines. Here we have two or three: Manafort was found guilty of the charges Muller brought against him; Michael Cohen “flipped” on Trump to assist federal prosecutors; John McCain died and the country got to see how Trump responded to that. Usually these dips reverse themselves when Trump goes quiet and the negative news coverage subsides. We will see if that happens next week, or if Tump continues to exacerbate his problems.

Week 83: August 19-25

In Russia News

Following up on Saturday’s story about McGahn giving Mueller 30 hours of interviews, the New York Times reported that 1) Trump’s lawyers do not know everything that McGahn told Muller; 2) McGahn was rattled by the Times story (September 2017) about Trump’s lawyers being overheard during lunch saying McGahn was hiding documents in a safe, and out of fear “he decided to try to demonstrate to Mr. Mueller that he and other White House lawyers had done nothing wrong.”

Tuesday afternoon, Cohen plead guilty to eight counts of financial crimes, and stated in court that Trump ordered him to commit crimes that violated campaign finance laws. Manafort was also given a guilty verdict on eight counts. Here is a graphic of who in Trump’s orbit has been charged with what so far.

This is seen as increasing the legal and political peril for Trump, in part because it is not about Mueller or the democrats or any other enemy. A jury of Manafort’s peers, and prosecutors in the Southern District of New York are leading this charge. White House aids are unclear how this will play and are struggling to develop a line of argument other than “The President has not been charged with any crime.” Trump also seemed at a bit of a loss Tuesday night, and could only talk about how Manafort was a good man.

On Wednesday Trump tweeted: “I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family. “Justice” took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to “break” – make up stories in order to get a “deal.” Such respect for a brave man!”

Trump has also said on live TV interviews that “flipping” and working with the government prosecutors should be illegal. This drew comparisons between him and how mob bosses talk about law enforcement.

Everyone seems to agree that Cohen’s statement means that Trump committed a felony. Here is Andrew McCarthy: “it was illegal for Michael Cohen to make contributions exceeding $2,700 per election to a presidential candidate (including contributions coordinated with the candidate); and illegal for the candidate to accept contributions in excess of that amount. It was also illegal for corporations to contribute to candidates (including expenditures coordinated with the candidate), and for the candidate to accept such contributions. The latter illegality is relevant because Cohen formed corporations to transfer the hush money… It is also illegal to fail to report contributions and expenditures, and to conspire in or aid and abet another person’s excessive contributions.”

What this should mean politically is sliding into the familiar Trump era muddle (#Nothing Matters vs. #WhatAboutism). In the same piece where McCarthy admits Trump committed crimes, he also argues that those crimes are not serious enough to justify impeachment. Never Trump conservative Bret Stephens tweeted that Trump should resign on the same day the news broke. His New York Times editorial made the case for impeachment: “Pragmatists will rejoin that there’s no sense in advocating impeachment when the G.O.P. controls Congress. I’m sorry that so many congressional Republicans have lost their sense of moral principle and institutional self-respect, but that’s a reason to seek Democratic victories in the fall. The Constitution matters more than a tax cut. What the Constitution demands is the impeachment and removal from office of this lawless president.”

Trump himself does not seem to understand the ways in which what he and Cohen did were illegal. In an interview for Fox News on Wednesday he claimed that the money was not “from the campaign.” This does not get him off the hook for any of the charges listed above. Mathew Yglesias points out “the fact that the boss in question can’t even deny the allegations properly only underscores how strange the situation is.”

According to reporting: “We started with collusion,” the president mused, according to several people who witnessed Mr. Trump’s somber mood. “How did we end up here?” His aids and lawyers also have no plan on how to proceed: “The only option was to follow Mr. Trump’s lead.” But no one in the White House including Trump knows where this is headed. It’s the fog of (political and legal) war.

Ben Wittes sums up the mood: “It is the morning after a devastating defeat. Smoke is still rising from the field. The rubble has not yet been cleared. And the commanders are having trouble facing just how hopeless their position has become. They no longer know on how many fronts they are fighting, how many separate enemies they face, or to what extent those enemies are cooperating—one might say “colluding”—with one another. They know they are surrounded. They know the next push could come at any moment—or be days, weeks, or months off. But they know neither what the attack will look like nor from which side it will come.”

Just a day after it was revealed that David Pecker has been granted immunity by the Southern District of New York, the New York Times reports that Allen Weisselberg the CFO of the Trump Organization, has also been given immunity.

In other news

Trump abruptly canceled Pompeo’s trip to North Korea less than a day after Pompeo announced it, saying there will be no progress on denuclearization until Chinese-US relations are improved.

After watching a segment on Fox News Trump tweeted about a white genocide conspiracy theory that black South Africans are killing minority white farmers. The tweet directed Pompeo to use the State Department to investigate the situation. This was interpreted by white nationalists here and abroad as another sign that Trump supports their cause.

Thursday night the McCain family announced that McCain was stopping all treatment for his brain cancer. Friday morning the Washington Post published a piece that recounts Trump and McCain’s bad history, which including this new reporting: “Trump does not want to comment on McCain before he dies, White House officials said, and there was no effort to publish a statement Friday as many politicians released supportive comments on the ailing senator.”

Late that afternoon, McCain died. Here are the obituaries from The New York Times and The Washington Post

Child-Separation Policy 

New government documents add more detail about the missing parents:

  • 412 already-deported parents with kids in US.
  • Phone numbers provided by Trump administration for 38 are no good.
  • 140 not reachable at numbers provided.
  • No phone numbers for 41.

Trump’s Job Approval: 41.90%

 

Will other TNG characters appear in the new Picard series? Here are the odds

Click to view full size image

CBS has announced a new Star Trek series featuring Patrick Stewart as Jean-Luc Picard. After the euphoric excitement of this news faded a bit, we were able to get excited all over again at the prospect of seeing other favorite Trek characters from the 24th Century. In this post I do some back of the envelope calculations about which of those characters we are likely to see again.   

Note that this is deep fanboy/girl speculation of the highest order. We have very little to go on, and as of now (late summer 2018) no scripts have been written. Here is literally all we know:

  • It will be a TV series
  • It will revolve around Picard
  • Picard will be in a different place in his life, and in a different position, possibly not a captain 
  • About 20 years will have passed since we last saw him in the last TNG film Star Trek: Nemesis.    

Going on those bare facts, I offer three ways to think about how other characters may or may not fit into the story of the new series. I have assigned a point system to the range of possibilities for each category. 

Interest Level: Story Fit: Story Burden:
High (3):

Medium (2):

Low (1):

Strong (3):

Unclear (2):

Weak (1):

Low (3):

Medium (2):

High (1):

First is Interest Level: how badly do we want to see the character again? This is obviously subjective. Some have little interest in even seeing Picard again because they like the way his arc ended, and they are comfortable with the man frozen in time in their head canon, perched in his chair on the Enterprise. While Wesley and Dr Pulaski are certainly someone’s favorite character, interest level in seeing them again are probably middling to low. I try to guide my rankings with what I perceive to be fandom conventional wisdom. Most of the TNG regulars are ranked as high interest.

Second is Story Fit: how well would a character fit into the story of a Picard-centric series? This question attempts to address the wish that no character should be dropped in just so we can see them again, and that their presence should make sense for the larger story and even enhance that story. It’s hard to guess how well Riker or Worf would do that since we do not know anything about the story yet. So I judge this based on additional questions: 1) is the character’s position in the Trek universe flexible enough that he or she could conceivably pop up wherever the series happens to be set?; 2) how close is the character to Picard’s life history; 3) what would their presence add to the story? While it may be fun for a fan to see Reg Barclay and LaForge in engineering of some ship, those cameos might come off as gimmicky.     

Third is a related but slightly different element, Story Burden: How hard would it be to resurrect the character based on where we last saw them (pun intended)? Some characters’ future story arc is a blank page, and so the writers would have no trouble filling in the details. But others were deposited by their previous writers into a narrative sweet spot of an end point, so new writers would have to try to honor that previous story arc and/or carefully dislodge them and set them on a new story arc. Other characters were left in a place of such finality that bringing them back would almost be like creating a new character. Solving for either situation will take up precious screen time with exposition and perhaps expensive flashbacks. Having to explain the plot of obscure episodes that aired over twenty-five years ago will risk confusing or losing the interest of new audience members–hence s story burden. 

By factoring these three elements together, we can get a sense of who is likely to return and who is not. There may be some surprises, so let’s get to it.   

Riker: 9/9

Interest Level: HIGH

Story Fit: STRONG

Story Burden: LOW

Click to view full size image

Riker is a natural choice for a major role in the Picard series in part because he is “out there” exploring space as captain of the Titan or some other ship. He need not be an admiral behind a desk. Born in 2335, he will be in his mid-sixties during the new series, which was Picard’s age when he was captain of the 1701-D. He will have been a captain for less time than Picard was captain of his first ship, the Stargazer. Picard served as a captain for 46 years that we know of. So it would make Riker’s putting off the chair all those years on TNG look absurd if he gave it up after only 20 years. 

More importantly, Riker knows Picard as well as anyone, and could provide insight on new developments in Picard’s life. It would be cool to see their relationship as friends and equals outside of the command structure of captain and first officer.  

Troi: 9/9

Interest Level: HIGH

Story Fit: STRONG

Story Burden: LOW

Click to view full size image

You probably can’t have Riker without Troi, since they are married and presumably serving on the same ship. Troi also served as Picard’s professional and personal confidant for the 15 years they served together. It’s easy to imagine that once they were no longer serving together on the same ship, the three of them became even closer friends.  

Crusher: 9/9

Interest Level: HIGH

Story Fit: STRONG

Story Burden: LOW

Click to view full size image

Crusher has known Picard for over fifty years. It would be natural for her to still be in his life since they share so much history, from the death of her first husband, to Picard helping raise her son Wesley, to their will-they-or-won’t-they romance. We know that she is one of the loves of his life. What we don’t know is if they ever get together (in the post-Nemesis novels they get married and have a child together). The Picard series will definitively answer this one way or the other unless she is not seen or mentioned, which seems unlikely. Will Crusher be depicted as his wife, as an old flame, or just an old friend? The answer will depend which option would better serve the larger story, and how much time they want to devote to her storyline.    

Worf: 9/9

Interest Level: HIGH

Story Fit: STRONG

Story Burden: LOW

Click to view full size image

Let’s assume that where Worf ended up at the close of DS9’s run, as the right hand of the chancellor of the Klingon Empire, is where he stayed–because it is the pitch perfect resolution to his entire story arc going back to early TNG. So an argument that Worf would fit well in a Picard story is predicated on the idea that some element of the Picard series will involve the Klingons–a pretty safe bet. The empire is vast, and Picard has some strong links to the Klingons, so it makes sense he would cross paths with them (and Worf) in his future adventures.     

LaForge: 7/9

Interest Level: MEDIUM

Story Fit: UNCLEAR

Story Burden: LOW

Click to view full size image

Unlike the others, the Geordie LaForge Memory Alpha entry doesn’t take that long to read. Most of what we know about his life is based on random bits of Geordie dialogue that were in service of someone else’s storyline and does not reveal much about his character (e.g., the fact that he survived a house fire as a child). When describing his personality, the best Memory Alpha could do was that “his outstanding characteristic was his adaptability to change and satisfaction with life. His sense of humor and affable nature remained strong, despite his growing responsibilities.” While there were many good Geordie episodes (“The Enemy”; “I, Borg”; “The Next Phase” to name only a few) these did not develop his character beyond that anodyne description. When the writers needed to depict future Geordie in “All Good Things” they had so little to go on that they made him a novelist, which had no basis in any previous episode. The best thing he gets to do in that timeline is make an in-joke about how awful it was to spew all that technobabble as chief engineer of the Enterprise.

If they choose to bring him back, the writers of the Picard series will hit a similar wall with the character: Who is Geordie 20 years after the Enterprise? Who was he when he on the Enterprise? If he’s going to play just another happy-go-lucky, competent Starfleet officer who helps Picard out on his adventure, maybe invent a new, more complex character for that role. For these reasons, I downgraded his ranks for interest level and story fit.          

Data: 6/9

Interest Level: HIGH

Story Fit: UNCLEAR  

Story Burden: HIGH

Click to view full size image

While Data is a beloved character, it would be difficult to bring him back for the Picard series. Story fit is one reason. The high interest in his character, combined with Brent Spiner’s acting chops, would bend the Picard storyline toward Data, or at least distract from it. In all four TNG movies Data received his own storyline that ran parallel to the Picard storyline, and so far this new series is billed as a Picard series, not the Picard & Data series.

Another complication is that Data’s presence would necessitate a detailed and likely technobabble-laden explanation to account for the fact that his physical body was completely destroyed in the last movie. Yes, his programming was downloaded into another Soong android, but that movie strongly implied that Data was dead, and the fact that his memories were preserved was just a sop to the the fans so they could pretend in their head canon that Data might return somehow. Actually resurrecting him would require some creative writing, which would distract from the main storyline.

As a side note: it was a mistake to kill Data, and would have been even if they found a more dramatically satisfying way to do it. One of the most interesting aspects of the character, which we first realized in “Time’s Arrow,” is his near immortality. It is possible that Data’s lifespan could last centuries if not thousands of years, with repairs, upgrades and replacements made along the way. Think of the perspective of such a being. We knew him as a “young man” who was still figuring out his programming and how to get along in the universe. To meet him again, twenty years later and over sixty years after being activated, he might have undergone a paradigm shift in his consciousness, making him a new and different character. I admit that I still hope we get to see this in the Picard series or a spin off season that features Data. We can all just agree to pretend that Data’s soul was transplanted in the new android’s body and then continue forgetting Nemesis ever happened. As for Brent Spiner’s age, it was always an easy explanation to say that Data has total control over his physical appearance and could make his synthetic flesh age with whatever peer group he joined. The only reason this idea was not floated, I presume, was that Spiner himself wanted a handy in-universe explanation to justify not wanting to keep playing the character. But that was years ago, and the quality CBS is offering is evident, and Stewart has agreed to come back, so… never say never.                        

Wesley: 4/9

Interest Level: MEDIUM

Story Fit: WEAK

Story Burden: HIGH

Image result for Wil Wheaton Wesley in Nemesis

While some were fans of Wesley, including me, he was not part of the seven regulars and I doubt there is a huge fanbase clamoring to see him again. He would be an awkward presence in a Picard series because while he was part of Picard’s life, it was not a large part, especially compared to some other characters. And despite the scene of him in a Starfleet uniform at Riker and Troi’s wedding (which was cut from Nemesis), his story arc placed him on an extra-dimensional plane with the Traveller. It is unlikely that the CBS writers will want to devote precious airtime to revisiting those old TNG episodes just to fit in a Wesley cameo.

Guinan: 9/9

Interest Level: HIGH

Story Fit: STRONG

Story Burden: LOW

Click to view full size image

Guinan is a fan favorite, and audiences would love to see Whoopie Goldberg and Patrick Stewart perform together. If she popped up in the new series it would not feel intrusive because the character was designed to pop up in other character’s stories to offer sage advice and then slip away behind the bar. She and Picard are very close, with much shared history, it would be neat to see their relationship as Picard enters a new phase of his life. And if the CBS writers are looking to pepper in familiar faces without flirting with revival territory by bringing back some or all of the primary cast, Guinan is a natural choice.   

Q: 6/9

Interest Level: MEDIUM

Story Fit: UNCLEAR

Story Burden: MEDIUM

Q is also a fan favorite who has appeared in three of the five modern Trek series, and what fan would not love to see John de Lancie and Stewart banter with one another again? But his over-the-top personality may dampen some fan’s interest in seeing him on the new series. While Guinan can be an unobtrusive presence, Q certainly cannot. The character’s gravitational pull is so great that he can’t just show up for a cameo. When Q is in an episode it is a Q episode, and the writers may not want that for their Picard-focused storyline. Since he can literally appear anywhere and anytime, it’s certainly easy to bring him back. But writers will have to come up with an important reason for Q to flash back into Picard’s life, and that will have a large impact on the overall story.  

As a TNG fan since September 1987, I would eat up a TNG revival where all of these character were seen again. But I know that the artistry of the show would suffer from being over-stuffed with fan service. The new series promises to be an intimate character study of a great character staring down the last phase of a long life, and played by the best actor Trek has ever had. This is blessing enough for the fans. However, if the series is a success it could launch more seasons or offshoot miniseries where all of our favorite characters can have a chance to shine. The cards have been dealt and we fans are holding a strong hand. Sky’s the limit.

The 11th Trump Job Approval Dip

We can now say that during the end of July Trump began to recover from another sustained dip in his approval rating. This is the 11th of his presidency, and like many previous dips, there was a mix of factors (I do some analysis below the summary). It was a minor dip with a score of 3 on our scale of 1-10. Read about the ranking model here.
Episode 11
Rank: 3
Decline: -1.10%
Lowest Approval: 41.3%
Range: June 23-July 28, 2018
Key Events:
  • Policy: Reporting on child separation reaches critical mass; Laura Bush publishes op-ed opposing the policy; Trump issues Executive Order that reverses course; Travel ban upheld by Supreme Court; Kennedy retirement; Judge Sabraw issues injunction on separation policy and CBP ends zero-tolerance policy; Chinese trade war escalates; Pompeo has failed meeting with North Korea; Kavanaugh announcement; NATO summit and trump attacking allies; announced that 103 children under 5 have been separated; 12 Billion to farmers hurt by tariffs; Trump declares a truce in EU trade war; continued effort to reunite boarder families
  • White House Chaos: Scott Pruitt resigned in scandal
  • Taboos: Trump-Putin Summit and press conference in Helsinki; pushback from Republicans, and Trump tries to walk back his statements; Cohen recording of Trump agreeing to McDougal payment is released
  • Russia Investigation: Mueller issues indictments of 12 GRU members
This dip answers the question of whether the child separation policy hurt Trump politically. The Laura Bush op-ed, in which she basically said the policy was racist and likened it to Japanese internment, dropped on a Sunday night June 17th; the following week there was wall-to-wall coverage of what was happening on the border. Trump’s approval dropped by .60% the following week. The pushback was so great that Trump reversed course on Wednesday June 20th, and the zero-tolerance policy that justified the separations was scrapped a week later. The first reporting on the policy was on April 20th when the New York Times got the Department of Homeland Security to admit publicly that 700 children had been taken from their parents. In those two months many administration officials from Sessions to Kelly to Nelson spoke to the media about how the policy was good and necessary. Certain reporters and newspapers would drop harrowing articles about parents who could not find their children, but the dam did not break until the Laura Bush op-ed.
The other key event that happened during this dip was the Helsinki Summit with Putin, which resulted in a .40% dip the following week. I struggled to categorize this event in the four common themes that coincide with Trump’s approval dips. It shares elements with Russia-related stories because Trump’s bizarre behavior with Putin was thought to be explained by the collusion narrative of the 2016 election. There was also some White House chaos when they tried to deal with the blowback, with explanations of double negatives and “wouldn’t” versus “would.” But at its heart, the transgression was a taboo, and it shocked people accordingly, especially conservatives. Presidents are not supposed to stand proudly with an adversary leader and publicly declare you believe him over your own intelligence chiefs. There was a reason several commentators described it as Trump’s Charlottesville moment of foreign policy, harkening back to his major taboo of the previous summer.
Despite these two major events, the dip was on the small range compared to the previous ten dips, eight of which were more sever than this one. These dips tend to coincide with a pile on of bad news cycles about a convergence of the above-mentioned trends. While this episode had that, there was also some positive news, including a win at the Supreme Court and the nomination of his second Supreme Court justice. Since he also quickly walked back the the child separation policy and the Helsinki comments, he was able to stanch the bleeding.

Week 82: August 12-18

Sunday was the one year anniversary of the Charlottesville Unite the Right rally. A few dozen white nationalists rallied outside the White House, dwarfed by thousands of protestors. Trump was silent about the anniversary at his Bedminster golf club, only tweeting that he condemns “all forms of racism and violence.”

Omarosa is selling her tell-all book, and released a video recording of John Kelly firing her in the situation room. Apparently she secretly recoded many conversations in the White House. She proceeded to release others throughout the week. 

On Wednesday Trump revoked John Brennan’s security clearance because of his role in the Russia investigation, and the fact that he has been an outspoken critic of Trump.

Brennan responded with an op-ed in the New York Times: “Mr. Trump’s claims of no collusion are, in a word, hogwash. The only questions that remain are whether the collusion that took place constituted criminally liable conspiracy, whether obstruction of justice occurred to cover up any collusion or conspiracy, and how many members of “Trump Incorporated” attempted to defraud the government by laundering and concealing the movement of money into their pockets.”

Dozens of former CIA chiefs appointed by Republicans and Democrats signed a letter protesting Trump’s move against Brennan. There is concern that the granting or revocation of security clearances will continue to be used for partisan politics. 

Retired admiral William McRaven, who oversaw the bin Laden raid, published an op-ed in the Washington Post that said: “I would consider it an honor if you would revoke my security clearance as well, so I can add my name to the list of men and women who have spoken up against your presidency.”

On Wednesday, the Manafort trial had its closing arguments. The jury was in deliberation through the weekend.

Nate Silver released his model for predicting the House midterm elections. As of now, the Democrats have a 3 in 4 chance of winning the House.

Child Separation Policy

  • 565 still separated; 24 are 5 years or younger
  • Parents of 366 are already deported; 6 are 5 or younger
  • 154 parents waived the right to reunite, and the ACLU is challenging that by arguing they were coerced. 

Trump’s Job Approval: 42.0%

Week 81: August 5-11

California made it state policy that no cars can be sold in California that do not comply to the Obama-era emissions standards, setting up a court fight with the Trump administration, which froze the Obama standards last week.

The last special election of the season was in Ohio. A district that Trump won by 11 points is too close to call over a day after polls closed. Republican strategist are worrying about how to use Trump on the campaign trail.

Nate Cohn analyzed some new Pew data on Trump voters showing that Trump’s support has softened among men with college degree and women with and without a degree. Neutral to disapprove for women without a college degree increased from 8% to 24% since the election. For women with a college degree, it was 16% to 26%.

In a wild story by the New York Times, we learn that the recent NATO Summit communique was ”the most substantive’ agreement that the alliance had put out in years” but Trump’s top advisors–Bolton, Pompeo, and Mattis–pushed NATO to approve it before Trump arrived at the summit so that he would not scuttle it out of pique.

Devos rescinded Obama era rules that shut down many for-profit colleges for running up student debt without them being able to fine gainful employment with their degrees.

Propublica reported that three wealthy Mar-A-Lago members have been steering the leadership of the VA, including getting the previous secretary selected and then fired, and pushing privatization policies.

North Korea told the US that they will not release a list of nuclear programs or test sites until the Korean War is officially ended.

Child-Separation Policy

This week’s update:

  • 559 children are still separated from their parents
  • 386 parents have been deported
  • 299 of those have been contacted
  • the government has no information at all about 29 parents

In Russia News

On Sunday Trump tweeted from his summer vacation in Bedminster attacking a Washington Post story suggesting Trump is worried Don Jr. may be in legal jeopardy. In the tweets he admitted for the first time that the Trump Tower meeting was to get opposition information on Hillary from the Russians.

Bob Baur on Lawfare argues that this tweet increases Trump’s legal jeopardy with Mueller, in part because by waging his defense publicly, it weakens the argument that he should not have to submit to an interview.

On Wednesday Trump’s lawyers notified Mueller that trump will not sit for an interview to answer questions about obstruction of justice. They told reporters that they did make a counter offer, but it is not known what that is.

Buzzfeed reported on the man who was trying to obtain Clinton’s emails who committed suicide, Peter W. Smith. They have learned that “After scouring nine accounts that Smith controlled, Northern Trust turned over documents showing 88 suspicious cash withdrawals totaling about $140,000 between January 2016 and April 2017, including a $3,000 withdrawal six days after the election.”

One Roger Stone associate has been interviewed by the Mueller grand jury, while another refused and was held in contempt.

Trump’s Job Approval:  41.9%

Week 80: July 29-August 4

Some reporting this week about the mid-terms. Reporters are noticing that GOP candidates are not talking too much about the booming economy and their tax bill, but are instead using Trump-like cultural attacks on their Democrat opponents. The prevalent theory is that the tax bill is not that popular, it doesn’t benefit the down scale voters that will decide the House races.

One theory is that because most House races are occurring in Trump districts, and many are trending toward the democrats, the GOP candidates have to pump up Trump’s core supporters.

Facebook told lawmakers this week that they shut down 32 fake accounts designed to gin up social divisions for the 2018 elections.

Trump’s top national security team–Wray, Coates, Bolton and Nelson–held a press conference in the briefing room of the White House where they said Russia is actively trying to interfere in the 2018 election and the government is doing everything they can to counter it. Trump was not present, and made no mention of it in his rally that evening.

Another group who want to be caught doing something about Russia (after Trump’s Helsinki summit) is in the Senate. A bipartisan group of senators including McCain and Grahm, began pushing a bill to increase sanctions on Russia and block the president from leaving NATO without Senate approval.

Child-Separation Policy

Here is a Washington Post recap of the history of the child separation policy.

Vox reported that a lawyer representing four fathers says they have been separated form their children a second time: “The fathers claim that ICE agents presented them with forms that were written mostly in English, with three options at the bottom in Spanish: being deported with their children, being deported without their children, and waiting to speak to a lawyer. All four claim that the first option — parent and child alike getting deported — had already been selected for them.”

Judge Sabraw told the government it is responsible for reuniting the 572 children sill separated from parents the government claims to not know the location of. 410 have already been deported. Sabraw said: “for every parent who is not located there will be a permanently orphaned child. And that is 100 percent the responsibility of the administration.”

  • 559 children still separated
  • 386 parents have been deported
  • the government had been in touch with 299 of them
  • they have no information at all about 26.

In Russia News

The Washington Post reported that Mueller’s team has offered to cut the number of questions for a Trump interview in half.

Trump tweeted on Wednesday that Sessions should end the Russia investigation “right now.” In my twitter feed I started reading a Jack Goldsmith piece titled “The Cycles of Panicked Reactions to Trump.” It took me a paragraph to realize he had written it in April 2018, the last time Trump was threatening the Mueller investigation. Goldsmith’s reposting of it was an attempt to prove his point: that Trump is making these threats cyclically, not because he is likely to follow through, but to discredit Mueller and muddy the waters for when the final conclusions come down. What struck me as I read it–where he set out seven possibilities for why Trump makes these threats–is that it encapsulates the mood of the times: none of us know what is actually happening (or has actually happened), and all we can do is speculate, and rank our speculation in long lists that contain their own lists of justifications and caveats. This week FiveThrityEight’s podcast was a debate over the merits of “Four theories of the Trump Russia Connection” which was modeled on a Lawfare piece from May 2017 titled “Seven Theories of the Case: What Do We Really Know About L’Affaire Russe and What Could it All Mean?” This inspired Wittes et.al. to revise their seven theories: “The bottom line is that the spectrum of possibility has narrowed but remains broad.” The headline is that “there is still no evidence that any Russian infiltration efforts saw success—at least not if success is defined by what we have colloquially come to call “collusion.” It’s a year and a half later (and two years after the campaign) and we still don’t know what it all means.

Manafort’s trial began on Tuesday. The judge has banned references to Russia and collusion.

Trump’s Job Approval: 41.4%

StarTrek01.25–Space Seed

Space Seed: an episode that is not as good, and more problematic (#MeToo) than I remember it. Still a classic, but not a masterpiece.

Excellent sci-fi elements:

Most extreme and detailed “future history” Trek has ever attempted: Mid 1990s Eugenics Wars; a dictator from Northern India region (possibly a Sheikh), leading a band of genetic mutants from all over the world  (Western, mid-European, Latin, Oriental) who were created by a pack of ambitious scientists; Earth on the verge of a dark ages, whole populations bombed out of existence.

We dispense with the notion that the 1990s depicted here has to be ret-coned with our actual reality. Interpreted as written (in the mid-1960s) this episode deepens our understanding of the Star Trek universe by showing us that the people we meet on the Enterprise are part of a society that learned a some very hard lessons in its relatively recent history.

Small nitpick of a plot hole I’ve never thought about until now: Kahn rules from 92 to 96; since he is clearly in his 40s at this time, he was likely born in the 1950s. So the Eugenics Wars had their beginnings in the fictional universe even before decade the show is being made in our actual universe.

The TOS message about the Eugenics Wars and genetic manipulation was not that you might create people with Terminator-like powers who will turn on you. It is a similar sci-fi theme as expressed in the Terminator movies, but with a different emphasis: not on the created product, but on the creators. The real villains are the scientists who designed them, and the message is one that Trek has made in many episodes going back to both pilots: there are no shortcuts; shortcuts of hard problems of human nature only cause more problems than you solve; using science and technology as a cureall *really* causes problems. (Listen to the analysis of McCoy’s speech about the Eugenics scientists.)   

Kahn is written as a product of ambitious scientists trying to design the perfect person: arrogant; self-assured; entitled to take what he wants; utter lack of empathy; sociopathic; he speaks with great arrogance. This makes him an unlikable character, even as a villain. Montalban’s performance elevates him.  

Marla McGivers: another problematic representation of a female character.

Kahn’s relationship with McGivers: Not only was it over the top misogyny (that some producers objected too even by 1966 standards), other parts were cliche and predictable. Too many of his scenes are devoted to portraying him as a virile sex object, the long scene pulling down her hair in the mirror being a prime example.

All that and more in the podcast.

The Mueller Investigation Set to Music, Part IV

In today’s orchestral dramatization of the Mueller investigation, Bolero picks up where we left off with drums booming and brass blazing: April 9, 2018, the Michael Cohen raid. Mueller’s team had found still-unknown illegal activity and kicked the case to the Southern District of New York. The music stops on July 13, when Mueller dropped his indictments of 12 Russian intelligence agents for election email hacking.

Next time: the music will cover the dueling duet between Trump’s legal team and Mueller over Trump’s interview, and preperations for the next round of (perhaps American) indictments. Will the music stop before the midterm election or after? Only time will tell.