The House Democrats released their Impeachment Report on Tuesday. Here is the full document.
On Thursday Pelosi announced that the House will begin drafting impeachment articles.
Lawfare speculates on how the Senate trial might unfold based on the rules as written: “The bottom line is that this trial will be all about who can count to 51—and all about how active the chief justice wants to be in determining the default rulings if senators fail to do so. “
There is news this week that the IG report on 2016 election will not support the conspiracy theories that the GOP has been pushing, and the Barr’s hand-picked investigator “could not offer evidence to the Justice Department’s inspector general to support the suspicions of some conservatives that the case was a setup by American intelligence”
The Trump Administration finally approved a rule its FDA proposed that will cut food stamps from 700,000 by imposing work requirements on able bodied adults without children: “Under the rules effective April 1, 2020, an area eligible for a waiver would have to have a 24-month average unemployment rate that is not only 20 percent above the national average but also at least 6 percent.”
An internal White House review shows that they were seeking a legal justification for witholding the aid months after Trump already ordered the hold: “In the early August email exchanges, Mulvaney asked acting OMB director Russell Vought for an update on the legal rationale for withholding the aid and how much longer it could be delayed. Trump had made the decision the prior month without an assessment of the reasoning or legal justification, according to two White House officials. Emails show Vought and OMB staffers arguing that withholding aid was legal, while officials at the National Security Council and State Department protested. OMB lawyers said that it was legal to withhold the aid, as long as they deemed it a “temporary” hold, according to people familiar with the review.”
Trump had Defense Secretary Esper fire the Navy Secretary over the dispute over the Navy SEAL Gallagher keeping his position in the SEALs.
Trump issued a formal order threat Gallagher not be punished, which is what Spencer had suggested last week.
Here is Ignatius on the firing: “the Gallagher case illustrates how an irascible, vengeful commander in chief is ready to override traditional limits to aid political allies in foreign policy, law enforcement and now military matters.”
A federal judge has ruled the Don McGahn must testify before the House and adhere to the subpoena.
The New York Times uncovered documents that show Giuliani pursued business deals with the same Ukrainian officials he was pushing to investigate the Bidens and 2016 election: “His discussions with Ukrainian officials, including the country’s top prosecutor, who assisted him on the dirt-digging mission, proceeded far enough along that he signed at least one retainer agreement, on his company letterhead.”
Trump visited troops in Afghanistan for Thanksgiving. He announced that talks with the Taliban were resuming, but his statements about a cease fire were at odds with where the negotiations now stand, so his statement only sowed confusion.
On Tuesday Vindman and Pence aid Jennifer Williams testified in open hearings. As did Volker and Tim Morrison.
On Wednesday Sondland testified and said that Trump has established a quid pro quo arrangement with Ukraine. This was seen as surprising, even blockbuster testimony, because Sondland’s opening statement blew up Trump’s defenses against the quid pro quo. Wittes even argues that Sondland admitted that Trump committed bribery.
On Thursday Fiona Hill testified, in what may be the last day of open hearings before an impeachment vote. Hill warned against politicians who “promote politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interests,” meaning the idea that Ukraine was involved in 2016 election interference. She also said that Trump involved US foreign policy in a “domestic political errand.”
It appears that the House will not get testimony from Giuliani, Pence, Pompeo and Bolton, leaving some gaps in the record. Even Trump-critical Republican House members like Will Hurd are saying their is not enough evidence to justify impeachment.
The New York Times reports that the Ukraine conspiracy theory that Trump is still pushing about the 2016 election was developed and propagated by Russian intelligence.
Emails reveal that Pompeo was in communication with Giulliani in March during the time when they were trying to oust Ambassador Yanakovitch and spread the Ukraine 2016 conspiracy theory.
Lindsay Graham asked the State Department to hand over documents that will help him investigate Biden and Ukraine.
In this piece, Frum attempts to analyze the GOP defense and mindset for impeachment: “The accusations against Trump are direct and intelligible to any open mind. The defense of Trump resembles the Star Wars saga: a universe of storytelling, in multiple parts, much of it comprehensible only if you venture beyond the visual franchise to a huge appendix of fan fiction and Wikipedia pages.
“The House Republicans’ underlying argument is too jumbled and confusing even to be agreed with. It can only be absorbed. It is to be repeated, not to be analyzed. It is not even really an argument at all. It is a hypnotic litany, a creed of faith—a faith all the more compelling for defying sense and experience.
“At Fox News, on talk radio, and on the web, American conservatives have built a communications system that effectively consolidates in-group identity. Much of the time, the talkers and listeners do not themselves understand what they are saying. They use key words and phrases as gang signs: badges of identity that are recognized without necessarily being understood.”
In other news:
Trump intervened on a Navy decision to demote a SEAL who was accused and acquitted of war crimes. The Secretary of the Navy is so far refusing to accept Trump’s twitter statement as a order.
Impeachment: Trump admits to asking Ukraine to investigate Biden; Pelosi announces formal Impeachment hearings; call summary released, with Trump asking Zelensky for a favor; Whistleblower complain released; Three House committees subpoenaed Giuliani; Pompeo and Pence are involved, refuse to cooperate; Trump asks China to investigate Biden; private messages about the Ukraine deal between Volker, Taylor and Sondland are released; News that Perry is involved and House subpoenas him; 2nd whistleblower comes forward; The White House sent a letter to the House saying they will refuse to turn over any documents, witnesses or participate in any way with impeachment; The SDNY filed an indictment against two associates of Giuliani; Yanakovitch testifies in closed session; More close door testimony: Hill, Kent, others; Congressional Democrats meet with Trump and walk out; Mulvaney press conference; Bill Taylor close-door testimony; Trump allies storm the closed door hearings to protest the process; News that Ukraine was aware of the hold on aid in August,
Policy: Trump’s call with Turkey and announcement of Syria pull out; Bipartisan House vote against Trump’s Syria decision
Analysis: The number of causes for Trump’s approval decline has grown by one with this episode, as the direct cause of the decline is something new to his presidency: Impeachment. Although it is important to remember that during this dip the Trump Administration received a couple weeks of sustained bad news cycles, including stiff Republican push back, over the decision to pull out of Syria and allow the Turks to attack the Kurds. The approval dropped sharply in the week after Pelosi announced impeachment, which was also the week in which Trump and the White House admitted to what he was being accused of and released official evidence as well. The next sharp decline happened two weeks later, after daily reports of what was being learned in closed door House testimony, and after acting chief of staff Mulvaney gave a press conference in which he admitted to the quid pro quo (the Syria new cycle was also happening this week).
A decline with a rank of 6 is significant. A dip this sever has not occurred since January 2019, which was due in part to the government shut down. And only 6 of the 19 dips have been worse than this one.
The dip ended October 26, Week 145, after lasting 5 weeks. Interestingly the slight uptick in approval has corresponded with open House hearings. During this time we have not learned much that was not reported from the close-door hearings which happened during the dip. So for two weeks the hearings were televised and people could hear from the original sources, instead of reading about it in the paper or hearing pundits report what happened. Public hearings just closed this week (Week 148) and we will see if the fact that “old” information was televised will cause a new dip in Trump’s approval. The day after public hearings ended, Trump’s approval had almost ticked back up to his stasis point of 42% (41.9%).
The House began releasing impeachment interview transcripts, starting with Ambassador Yovanovitch. New transcripts were released each day this week.
Here are the highlights from the transcript of Taylor’s testimony.
Here is a list of the top five impeachment revelations from this week.
Sondland corrected his earlier testimony and is now describing a quid pro quo he pushed with Ukraine: “I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks” including a script for Zelensky to deliver about Burisma and 2016 election interference.
The New York Times reports that Ukraine came very close to giving into Trump’s demands: “Nearly all Mr. Zelensky’s top advisers favored his making the public statement, said one of the officials who participated in the debate. United States military aid, they agreed, as well as diplomatic backing for impending peace talks to end the war outweighed the risks of appearing to take sides in American politics…. Finally bending to the White House request, Mr. Zelensky’s staff planned for him to make an announcement in an interview on Sept. 13 with Fareed Zakaria, the host of a weekly news show on CNN.” Aid was released on September 11.
On Sunday Trump took a victory lap press conference after the dead of the ISIS leader. It is a noted irony that the factors that lead to al-Baghdadi’s death are international alliances and cooperation that Trump has undermined, especially with the Kurds.
On Tuesday a DOD official, Alexander Vindman, who worked in the White House and was on the July 25 call testified before the House. In his opening statement, like Taylor last week, he stressed the geopolitical importance of Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia: “a strong and independent Ukraine is critical to U.S. national security interests because Ukraine is a frontline state and a bulwark against Russian aggression.” And he stresses the importance of support for the new Ukrainian president Zelensky: The U.S. government policy community’s view is that the election of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the promise of reforms to eliminate corruption will lock in Ukraine’s Western-leaning trajectory, and allow Ukraine to realize its dream of a vibrant democracy and economic prosperity.”
Like Tayler, he describes “outside influencers promoting a false narrative of Ukraine inconsistent with the consensus views of the interagency. This narrative was harmful to U.S. government policy.”
On the July 10 meeting with Ukaninan officials: “Sondland started to speak about Ukraine delivering specific investigations in order to secure the meeting with the President, at which time Ambassador Bolton cut the meeting short. Following this meeting, there was a scheduled debriefing during which Amb. Sondland emphasized the importance that Ukraine deliver the investigations into the 2016 election, the Bidens, and Burisma.”
Vindman testified that on the July 25 call with Zelensky Trump mentioned recorded calls of Biden Jr. discussing corrupt acts and Zelensky saying the name Burisma, both of which were stricken from the released record of the call.
Another detail that came out of the Vindman testimony is that after he went to White House lawyers to warn that Trump “did something wrong” on the July 25 call, John Eisenberg placed the call summary in the secret classified server: “Vindman’s account marks the first known instance in which a witness before the impeachment inquiry has provided a firsthand account linking Eisenberg to the decision to move the problematic transcript to a highly classified server.”
On Thursday (Halloween) the House voted to approve the next rounds of the impeachment investigation. No Republicans voted in support. Here is a list of what is in the House resolution. It moves the inquiry to its public phase, authorizing public hearings, the filing of a report and release of transcripts. It allows for an opening 45 minutes of questioning by staff lawyers before the regular members have to alternate between Democrat and Republican.
Bill Taylor gave blockbuster private testimony on Tuesday that laid out Trump’s Ukraine deal in real time. Among other things he claims that Sondland told Ukrainian officials that aid money was being held up unless they investigated the Bidens. He also clearly implicated that Volker was pushing the scheme as much as Sondland. Here is the full 15 page transcript of his opening statement.
On Wednesday two dozen Trump allies in the GOP House caucus stormed the closed door Intelligence Committee hearings and disrupted an interview with a DOD official for several hours.
The New York Times reports that Ukraine knew about the aid hold in early August: “In conversations over several days in early August, a Pentagon official discussed the assistance freeze directly with a Ukrainian government official, according to records and interviews. The Pentagon official suggested that Mr. Mulvaney had been pushing for the assistance to be withheld, and urged the Ukrainians to reach out to him.”
The Washington Post reports that the Trump Administration also delayed some trade deals with Ukraine in August.
Here is a good piece on what it is like for Ukrainian soldiers fighting their war against Russia and how the aid freeze effected them psychologically: “Since taking office in May, Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has wanted the United States to take a more active role in pressuring Russia to withdraw its forces from eastern Ukraine — which the Kremlin does not even acknowledge are there — and accept a peace deal to end the conflict.”
The New York Times reports that DOJ has turned its inquiry into the origins of the 2016 Trump-Russia investigation into a criminal investigation, which will allow them to subpoena and indict people: Among other things, “Mr. Durham has also asked whether C.I.A. officials might have somehow tricked the F.B.I. into opening the Russia investigation.”
According to Politico: probing a conspiracy theory for which there is little if any evidence, according to several people with knowledge of the matter: that a key player in the Russia probe, a professor named Joseph Mifsud, was actually a Western intelligence asset sent to discredit the Trump campaign — and that the CIA, under Brennan, was somehow involved” in tricking the FBI
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Trump’s Job Approval: 40.7%
NOTE: There was a sharp drop in the approval rating one week after Pelosi formally announced impeachment, but this was followed by a slight rebound. However in the past two weeks there have been two more steep declines , possibly due to the continued Ukraine revelations and/or the Syria pull out. Trump’s approval has not been this low since the Government shutdown in January. As of now the decline severity rank is a 6, signifying an above average decline.
Fiona Hill testified on Monday. She said Bolton told her that Mulveney and Sondland Ukraine plan was a “drug deal” he wanted no part in.
On Tuesday, Giuliani declared that he will not comply with House subpoena for documents. So too did Pence, the Defense Department, and the Office of Management.
A state department official, George P. Kent, testified that after a May 23 meeting called by Mulvaney, three people–Sondland, Perry and Volker–effectively took over managing Ukraine and career people like him were told to “lay low.”
The House voted with overwhelming Republican support to disapprove of Trump’s actions on Syria.
On Wednesday another State Department official testified in closed session before the House. He said he quit in opposition to the firing of the Ukraine ambassador and the politicization of the State Department in general.
It is not apparent that declarations form Trump and the White House from last week that they will block all cooperation has not in fact blocked cooperation: “One by one, a parade of Trump administration career diplomats and senior officials has offered a cascade of revelations. Those accounts have corroborated and expanded upon key aspects of the whistle-blower complaint that spawned the impeachment inquiry”
This famous picture was taken on Wednesday during a white House meeting between Trump and Congressional democrats. Trump was belligerent and Pelosi and her team eventually walked out.
Thursday: Mulvaney gave a press conference in which he admitted that the White House held up the Ukraine aid money over the election interference favors: “Did he also mention to me in passing the corruption related to the D.N.C. server?” Mr. Mulvaney said, referring to Mr. Trump. “Absolutely. No question about that.” He added, “That’s why we held up the money.” He later walked back the statement, though even few Republicans took the walk back seriously.
Mulvaney also announced that the next G7 summit would be at trump’s Doral resort. By Saturday Trump scrapped those plans, after much pushback. According to the Washington Post: “several GOP lawmakers have reached out to White House officials to urge Trump to reconsider his Doral decision, which they worry smacks of corruption.”
The Washington Post interviewed over 20 GOP members in Congress: “There’s now a growing sense among a quiet group of Republicans that the president is playing with fire, taking their loyalty for granted as they’re forced to ‘defend the indefensible.'”
On Friday General McRaven published an op-ed against Trump in The New York Times: “if this president doesn’t demonstrate the leadership that America needs, both domestically and abroad, then it is time for a new person in the Oval Office — Republican, Democrat or independent — the sooner, the better. The fate of our Republic depends upon it.”
AP reports that Giuliani and Rick Perry were not just pushing Ukraine to investigate Trump political opponents, but were also involved in a group of Trump allies who were trying to install a more friendly management team to a Ukraine gas company called Naftogaz: “This circle of businessmen and Republican donors touted connections to Giuliani and Trump while trying to install new management at the top of Ukraine’s massive state gas company. Their plan was to then steer lucrative contracts to companies controlled by Trump allies…” One of Perry’s past political donors is involved: “The Associated Press has interviewed four people with direct knowledge of the attempts to influence Naftogaz, and their accounts show Perry playing a key role in the effort.”
Also this from the AP: “In a private meeting with Zelensky, Perry pressed the Ukrainian president to fire members of the Naftogaz advisory board. Attendees left the meeting with the impression that Perry wanted to replace the American representative, Amos Hochstein, a former diplomat and energy representative who served in the Obama administration, with someone “reputable in Republican circles,” according to someone who was in the room…. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to fear of retaliation, said he was floored by the American requests because the person had always viewed the U.S. government “as having a higher ethical standard.””
A second whistleblower has come forward, and is being represented by the same legal team as the first. He or she claims to have first hand knowledge of the Ukraine deal.
Monday
The House subpoenas the Pentagon and Budget Office for information about Ukraine.
Tuesday
The White House sent a letter to the House saying they will refuse to turn over any documents, witnesses or participate in any way with impeachment: “In order to fulfill his duties to the American people, the Constitution, the Executive Branch, and all future occupants of the Office of the presidency, President Trump and his administration cannot participate in your partisan and unconstitutional inquiry under these circumstances.”
Thursday
The SDNY filed an indictment against two associates of Giuliani who were arrested trying to flee the country Wednesday night. They were charged with illegal campaign contributes from a Russian foreign national and conspiracy. They also were involved in the Ukraine situation by being part of the pressure campaign to remove the ambassador.
There was also news this week of an Oval Office meeting between Trump, Giuliani and Tillerson in which Tillerson was pressed to interfere in a DOJ case against a Turkish national. He refused.
The fired Ukrainian ambassador Marie Yavanovitch testified before the House. She said she was removed based on “unfounded and false claims by people with clearly questionable motives.”
In other news:
Sunday night Trump announced that he was withdrawing support from Syrian Kurds and opening the door for Turkey to invade. After intense pushback from GOP in Congress, he seemed to equivocate: “As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!).”
Here is a remarkable sentence about how the Pentagon has been keeping its Syria policy quiet from the president since he ordered a full withdrawal in December: “military officials decided they would keep quiet about Syria. The strategy extended all the way to combat outposts in the country, where Special Forces officers were reminded that their mission could end quickly if the commander in chief was publicly reminded that there were still 1,000 troops there”
A judge ordered that Trump must turn over eight years of his tax returns to the Manhattan DA for the Stormy Daniels case. Trump’s legal team appealed to the 2nd District Court.
DHS secretary MacAleen resigned on Friday: “A person close to McAleenan, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said he resigned Friday after weeks of growing disenchantment with his standing in the administration. He was never formally nominated for the job and there was no indication he would be.”
A former national security advisor for Trump, Thomas Bossert, has given interviews saying that Trump is pushing a “completely debunked” conspiracy theory that Ukraine and not Russia was involved in the 2016 election. While he is”deeply disturbed” he does not think what Trump has done is impeachable.
Over the weekend the Washington Post and the New York Times reported that Pompeo has recently renewed an internal State Department investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email usage: “as many as 130 officials had been contacted in recent weeks.”
Retired GOP senator Jeff Flake came out in favor in impeachment: “We have learned from a whistleblower that the president has abused the power of his office to pressure a foreign government to go after a political opponent. A rough transcript of the telephone call has removed all ambiguity about the president’s intent… With what we now know, the president’s actions warrant impeachment. …At this point, the president’s conduct in office should not surprise us. But truly devastating has been our tolerance of that conduct…. Trust me when I say you can go elsewhere for a job. But you cannot go elsewhere for a soul.”
New York Times broke news that Trump and Barr were pushing Australia to help them debunk the Mueller probe: “President Trump initiated the discussion in recent weeks with Mr. Morrison explicitly for the purpose of requesting Australia’s help in the Justice Department review of the Russia investigation..Mr. Barr requested that Mr. Trump speak to Mr. Morrison.”
Here is the Washington Post story on Barr, suggesting he is working in support of John Durham’s investigation of the intelligence agencies role in investigating Russian interference in 2016: “Barr has already made overtures to British intelligence officials, and last week the attorney general traveled to Italy, where he and Durham met senior Italian government officials and Barr asked the Italians to assist Durham, according to one person familiar with the matter. It was not Barr’s first trip to Italy to meet intelligence officials, the person said. The Trump administration has made similar requests of Australia, these people said.”
Wall Street Journal reports that Pompeo was on the July 25 phone call between Trump and Zelensky.
Tuesday
Pompeo sent a letter to Congress saying he would not allow State Department officials to testify before Congress. Three House chairmen wrote back: “Any effort to intimidate witnesses or prevent them from talking with Congress — including State Department employees — is illegal and will constitute evidence of obstruction of the impeachment inquiry.”
Washington Post reports that Pence was used by the White House to pressure Ukraine, but Pence’s team claims he was unaware of the Zelensky phone call and the Biden favor request.
Thursday
Trump told reporters on the South Lawn that he wants both Ukraine and China to open investigations into Joseph and Hunter Biden.
Giuliani gave an exclusive interview with the Wall Street Journal in which he said the Trump ordered the removal of the US ambassador to Ukraine because she was not in support of the Biden investigation.
The New York Times reports that the ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland and Kurt Volker drafted a statement for the Ukrainian president in the weeks after the July 25 call: “The statement would have committed Ukraine to investigating the energy company Burisma, which had employed Hunter Biden, the younger son of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. And it would have called for the Ukrainian government to look into what Mr. Trump and his allies believe was interference by Ukrainians in the 2016 election in the United States to benefit Hillary Clinton. The idea behind the statement was to break the Ukrainians of their habit of promising American diplomats and leaders behind closed doors that they would look into matters and never follow through.”
The House released the private messages between US diplomats wherein they are describing pressuring Ukraine to investigate 2016 and Biden in exchange for support from the White House. Here are some key messages that establish quid pro quo:
In Other News:
Politico reports on new Trump property details that have surfaced in House investigations: “the committee received information that two entities — a trade association and a foreign government — booked a large quantity of rooms but only used a fraction of them.” The report contains this impeachment nugget: Pelosi “may quietly allow a couple other issues to be included. Those could include Trump illegally making money off his presidency and obstruction of justice in special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether Trump associates colluded with Russia to interfere in the 2016 election.”
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Trump’s Job Approval: 41.6% (dropped to 41.2% for one day)
