Episode 21
Rank: 8
Decline: -3.90%
Lowest Approval: 40.1%
Date Range: May 16-July 11, 2020
Analysis:
A rank of 8 is the second most severe category of approval decline that Trump has achieved, and it has only happened two other times. Only one other approval drop has been larger than this one (Episode 4 from early 2017). Other dips have gone lower, but going from 44% to 40.1% reflects a significant swing. For Trump, this does not happen very often.
The reason is not as simple as Trump’s poor COVID response. Many of the greatest hits news cycles of past approval dips all returned in the first half of summer 2020, from the Russia investigation to White House chaos to prominent defections. While COVID is mostly likely the key factor, since these weeks saw massive outbreaks across the sunbelt states, another major factor was his response to nationwide protests after the police killing of George Floyd on May 25, in particular his crackdown and the June 2 church photo op. There were also smaller events that may have made an impact, like the week long focus on Russian bounties paid to the Talbian for dead American soldiers. See a summary of key events from these weeks below.
In the 10 weeks since the dip ended (and with only 6 to go before the elections) Trump has made up three-quarters of the points he lost in this dip. There has been no obvious bounce, just a gradual reversion to this 42% homeostasis.
Key Events:
COVID-19
A mini outbreak of Coronavirus is happening in the Trump Administration; masks now required in the WH; Dr. Fauci’s remarks, along with those of Dr. Redfield, contradicted Mr. Trump’s growing insistence that the nation has put the coronavirus behind it; Senator Burr stepped down from the Senate Intelligence Committee under suspicion of COVID-related insider trading; 2020 virtual Graduation with Obama keynote address; America hit 100,000 deaths on Wednesday May 27; Trump’s June 20th rally in Tulsa was his first since early March. It was widely under-attended, with only about 6,000 supporters showing up; By midweek the crisis in southern and western states was clear: The United States’ coronavirus testing capacity has begun to strain as the pandemic continues to spread; Texas and Florida halted and then reversed its reopening plan; Trump wore a mask in public for the first time on Saturday, arranges a dramatic video at Walter Reed Hospital
Policy
Trump and allies pushing Obamagate; Trump fired the State Department Inspector General on Friday night; The state IG had also “begun an inquiry into Mr. Pompeo’s possible misuse of a political appointee to perform personal tasks for him and his wife, according to Democratic aides; The Trump Administration withdrew from a key arms control accord; More family separation of immigrants are happening; Trump responded to the Floyd killing with an Executive Order; There was serious unrest and protests outside of the White House Sunday night, and Trump went into the bunker Friday night; Trump Church Photo Op Monday June 2; Trump told the Army on Monday to deploy active-duty military police to Washington; Attorney General William P. Barr personally ordered law enforcement officials to clear the streets around Lafayette Square just before President Trump spoke Monday; Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper initially tried to send home a small portion of the 1,600 active-duty troops on Wednesday, only to have Mr. Trump order him to reverse course during an angry meeting. The president finally acquiesced on Thursday; The New York Times got a hold of interviews and other documents about the use of the National Guard to suppress protests in D.C.; Trump issued an executive order on policing, seen by most as weak; The Supreme Court overturned Trump’s attempt to end DACA, meaning that the Dreamers are protected for now; All three major papers–New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post–reported this weekend that US intelligence believes that Russia’s GRU paid Taliban to kill American soldiers–As for the administration’s response: One senior administration official offered a new explanation on Sunday, saying that Mr. Trump was not briefed because the intelligence agencies had come to no consensus on the findings.
Defections
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mike Mullen spoke out against the protest crackdown in a piece in the Atlantic; Mattis released a statement on Wednesday; Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff apologized for joining Trump in the Lafayette Square photo op; Experts of Bolton’s book were published in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday:
Taboos
Trump got pushback from some allies for continuing to tweet accusations that Joe Scarborough killed an aide in the 90s; Tistter started fact checking Trump tweets; Trump tweets “the looting starts, the shooting starts” which is censured by Twitter; Also on Sunday Trump tweeted a video of people chanting White Power. It was later deleted and a spokesperson calimed Trump had not heard the audio.
Russia Investigation
The judge in the Flynn Case, Emmet Sullivan, appointed a former judge to asses whether Flynn lied and committed perjury; Friday night a record of Flynn’s 2016 calls with Kislyak were leaked; judge urged a court to reject its attempt to drop the criminal case against Michael T. Flynn; Trump commuted Roger Stone’s 40 month sentence on Friday night–Mueller write op-ed in response, defending his team’s investigation
Non-Russia Related Legal Troubles
Trump fired Geoffrey S. Berman, the United States attorney for SDNY–this is several categories: a taboo for firing based on political motivations; White House chaos for the bungled nature of firing; and a defection, since the Trump appointed attorney publicly rebutted the administrations rational for removing him. Still, the undercurrent is that this office was investigating sensitive Trump legal matters; The Supreme Court ruled that the Manhattan DA can get access to Trump tax record; Berman stepped down three weeks later