Episode 17
Rank: 4
Decline: -1.20%
Lowest Approval: 41.20%
Date Range: May 11-May 25, 2019
Key Events:
Policy: The Washington Post reported that last year the Trump Administration was planning a mass arrest and deportation of immigrant families; The White House is putting together a war plan to counter Iran that calls for 120,000 troops to be deployed to the Middle East; talks with China collapsed (again) last Friday, some Republican senators are publicly expressing concern over Trump’s trade war and tariff tactics: “The Trump administration has identified at least 1,712 migrant children it may have separated from their parents”; 6th child has died in CBP custody
Taboos: Trump’s visit to Japan over Memorial Day weekend, the White House had the USS John McCain cover the name of the ship with a tarp
Russia Investigation: Hundreds of former federal prosecutors signed a letter that said Mueller had enough evidence to charge Trump with obstruction; The Senate Intelligence Committee, led by Burr, issued the first subpoena for a Trump family member, Don Jr; Deutsche Bank investigators triggered several suspicious activity reports for Trump and Kushner finances; Mueller gave first public statement
Non-Russia Related Legal Troubles: Mnuchin finally formally refused to hand over Trump’s tax returns ; The New York Times obtained copies of Trump’s tax returns from 1985-1994– 1 billion in losses; A series a legal blows to Trump attempting to fight congressional investigations came this week: The decision in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York could clear the way for Deutsche Bank and Capital One to hand over the president’s financial records
Defections: GOP congressman Justin Amash became the first Republican congressperson to call for Trump’s impeachment.
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This dip follows two weeks after the Mueller Report dip, and it matches that dip for severity, both of them having a rank of 4 and reaching a nadir of 41.2%. This was a period in which everyone was coming to terms with the details of the report, and much media coverage was devoted to those details. While Mueller did make his first public remarks during this dip, the dip had already occurred by the time he spoke and the rebound would begin the following week. It is possible that the dip happened only because of the sharp, brief rise in approval in between the dips, although it is hard to explain that rise. In those two weeks (Week 119-120) there was no much positive news coverage or events that might explain the rebound. it could just be that this was a noisy polling period in which a lot of news covered was spun around between the Mueller Report and Barr’s attempts to spin it. In any case, the Mueller dips to 41.2% were reversed over the next seven weeks as Trump’s approval climbed back up to 43% in Week 130. At this point the 18th dip began, and Trump slid back down to 41.1%.