Month: November 2020

Some Closing Arguments & Predictions

Tom Nichols on Never Trumpers: I believe that if all of us had caved, Trump would now be much closer to victory, not just at the polls, but over the Constitution itself. Many of us instead held firm and made the case for democracy and the rule of law from the right flank against our own tribe…. when Trump is gone (whether after this election or in 2024), I will continue to oppose everyone who had anything to do with inflicting this scar on American history, long after the members of the Trump family are finally bankrupt, in rehab, in jail, or living in seclusion in Manhattan among the neighbors who already despise them.

Current and former Trump Administration officials reach out to Ron Suskind to share their concerns anonymously: They are worried that the president could use the power of the government — the one they all serve or served within — to keep himself in office or to create favorable terms for negotiating his exit from the White House. Like many other experts inside and outside the government, they are also concerned about foreign adversaries using the internet to sow chaos, exacerbate divisions and undermine our democratic process….
They are loath to give up too many precise details, but it’s not hard to speculate from what we already know. Disruption would most likely begin on Election Day morning somewhere on the East Coast, where polls open first. Miami and Philadelphia (already convulsed this week after another police shooting), in big swing states, would be likely locations. It could be anything, maybe violent, maybe not, started by anyone, or something planned and executed by any number of organizations, almost all of them on the right fringe, many adoring of Mr. Trump. The options are vast and test the imagination.

The F.B.I., meanwhile, is bracing for huge challenges. “We are all-hands-on-deck for the foreseeable future,” the F.B.I. official I mentioned earlier told me. “We’ve been talking to our state and local counterparts and gearing up for the expectation that it’s going to be a significant law-enforcement challenge for probably weeks or months,” this official said. “It feels pretty terrifying.”

Echoing this, Trump said on a rally on Saturday: “We’re going to be waiting. Nov. 3 is going to come and go, and we’re not going to know. And you’re going to have bedlam in our country.”

Pre-Election Day

Here is a round up of election street action that started over the weekend, including Trump carvans block traffic in New York and New Jersey on Sunday.

An early voting rally in North Carolina was pepper sprayed by police, including children and elderly.

In Pennsylvania, more liberal counties say they will start counting mail in ballots as soon as the law allows, which is early Election Day morning, while conservative counties say they will wait to even start until after Election Day.

About the “poll watchers” Trump’s team has been coaching: If the president decides to contest the election’s results, his campaign could let loose a blizzard of misleading, decontextualized video clips as “proof” that the vote can’t be trusted…. But the poll watchers’ real influence may not be felt until they go home and start uploading their videos. Three Democratic strategists who are involved in post-election “scenario planning” told me that—barring a blowout on Election Night—Americans should expect a last-ditch disinformation blitz from Trump and his allies to create the impression of wide-scale cheating.

Election Night

Trump’s first statement came at 12:44am Wednesday morning: We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!

The map was static from mid-day Wednesday through Saturday morning.

Around 4am Friday morning Biden overtook Trump in Georgia, though the margins are so close the race could take weeks before a final call.

Trump gave remarks Thursday evening from the briefing room of the White House.

This from the fivethirtyeight liveblog, posted after Trump’s speech, seems to be true for most news orgs this week: one part of Trump’s reelection strategy has been actively trying to delegitimize the result for weeks, months now (even dating back to 2016, when he won). The outcome of the 2020 presidential election is not yet known, and it won’t become clear until we have results in Pennsylvania and Arizona, but since Trump made it clear that he would take this route, we talked over how we would handle things in the FiveThirtyEight newsroom.

Here’s where we landed: If Trump falsely or prematurely declares victory or tries to delegitimize the result … our priorities would be (i) don’t let Trump’s false/premature claim dominate our coverage or alter our framing of the night, while (ii) still making clear to readers why the claim is false/premature and carries no legal power. Those continue to be our guiding principles.

America is now a different country. Nearly half of the voters have seen Trump in all of his splendor—his infantile tirades, his disastrous and lethal policies, his contempt for democracy in all its forms—and they decided that they wanted more of it. His voters can no longer hide behind excuses about the corruption of Hillary Clinton or their willingness to take a chance on an unproven political novice. They cannot feign ignorance about how Trump would rule. They know, and they have embraced him.

Tom Nichols: America is now a different country. Nearly half of the voters have seen Trump in all of his splendor—his infantile tirades, his disastrous and lethal policies, his contempt for democracy in all its forms—and they decided that they wanted more of it. His voters can no longer hide behind excuses about the corruption of Hillary Clinton or their willingness to take a chance on an unproven political novice. They cannot feign ignorance about how Trump would rule. They know, and they have embraced him.

November 7

Saturday at 11:24am CNN became the first network to call Pennsylvania and the Election for Biden.

Trump was golfing at his Virginia course when the news broke. He neglected to offer a concession all of Saturday.

Celebrations erupted all over the country, and the world.

Here is the Time’s account of Trump reaction to the news on Saturday.

Nate Silver’s take: just because of that blue shift — and the red shift that occurred in states where mail votes were counted first — that doesn’t mean the presidential race was all that close in the end. Joe Biden’s win was on the tighter side of the likely range of outcomes suggested by polls, but it was a thoroughly convincing one judged on its own merits.

—

Trump’s Job Approval: 44.7%

COVID Cases / Deaths: 9,581,770 / 234,264

Barrett was voted on and sworn in on Monday evening.

DHS is expelling unaccompanied migrant children to Mexico in violation of our agreements with Mexico: Rumors of children from other countries being expelled into Mexico have swirled among nonprofit workers advocating for child welfare in Mexico and the United States. But locating any such children has been difficult because of spotty reporting from Mexican government authorities.

But an email from the U.S. Border Patrol’s assistant chief, Eduardo Sanchez, obtained by The New York Times, makes it clear that such transfers have not only occurred, but that they are a clear violation of U.S. policy.

New York Times reports on Barr’s DOJ giving preferable treatment to a Turkish bank with ties to Jared Kushner.

Election 2020

The Supreme Court ruled that Wisconsin cannot extend the deadline for receiving ballots from November 3 to November 6. The case was decided by the 5 conservative justices. The argument seems to be that they don’t want single judges–a federal appeals court judge in this case–changing election rules while the election is ongoing. Gorsuch: “No one doubts that conducting a national election amid a pandemic poses serious challenges. But none of that means individual judges may improvise with their own election rules in place of those the people’s representatives have adopted.”

Last week the court deadlocked, with Roberts on the liberal side, on a similar case in Pennsylvania. Roberts explains the distinction: “While the Pennsylvania applications implicated the authority of state courts to apply their own constitutions to election regulations, this case involves federal intrusion on state lawmaking processes. Different bodies of law and different precedents govern these two situations and require, in these particular circumstances, that we allow the modification of election rules in Pennsylvania but not Wisconsin.”

Kavanaugh’s portions of the rulings are raising eyebrows.

The Supreme Court ruled Wednesday to allow the extension of the deadline for return of ballots in Pennsylvania.

Edsall in the Times: The reality is that in order to remain competitive, the party has been forced to adopt policies and strategies designed to restrict and constrain the majority electorate: voter suppression, gerrymandering, dependence on an Electoral College that favors small, rural states, and legislation designed to weaken and defund the labor movement.

In this context, it’s not a surprise that Trump and his partisan allies would be guided by an “anti-democracy attitude” that “has so taken hold that it could actually undo a presidential election.” What is more surprising is that it possibly could succeed.

Examples of voter suppression measures in Pennsylvania.

Frum writes this week: We are hearing louder and louder voices on the Republican side questioning whether universal voting rights should even theoretically be guaranteed by the American constitutional system…. The U.S. Constitution in many ways protects minorities against majorities. In the Trump era, we see instead politicians like Lee trying to pretend that minorities are majorities—and to grab the powers that legitimately belong to majorities away from them.

That’s the thing that needs to stop. That’s the thing that needs to change. And if Trump and his allies seem in these final days to act more frantically, more abusively, than usual, perhaps it is because they sense that the change is coming.

—

Trump’s Job Approval: 44.2%

COVID Cases/Deaths: 9,024,298 / 229,109

The second and final debate was on Thursday.

A new report on Child separation says that 545 children have been permanently separated from their parents.

Election 2020

The Supreme Court deadlocked 4-4 allowing Pennsylvania to count ballots received until November 6. Roberts sided with the liberals: In its Sept. 17 ruling, the divided state Supreme Court said ballots must be postmarked by the time polls close and be received by county election boards at 5 p.m. on Nov. 6, three days after the Nov. 3 election.

There is some reporting this week about Russia hacking into American election systems: The discovery of the hacks came as American intelligence agencies, infiltrating Russian networks themselves, have pieced together details of what they believe are Russia’s plans to interfere in the presidential race in its final days or immediately after the election on Nov. 3. … American officials expect that if the presidential race is not called on election night, Russian groups could use their knowledge of the local computer systems to deface websites, release nonpublic information or take similar steps that could sow chaos and doubts about the integrity of the results, according to officials briefed on the intelligence. Such steps could fuel Mr. Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that the vote is “rigged” and that he can be defeated only if his opponents cheat.

—

Trump’s Job Approval: 42.6%

COVID Cases / Deaths: 846,9976 / 223,393

Barrett was voted on and sworn in on Monday evening at a White House event that was turned into a campaign ad for Trump.

DHS is expelling unaccompanied migrant children to Mexico in violation of our agreements with Mexico: Rumors of children from other countries being expelled into Mexico have swirled among nonprofit workers advocating for child welfare in Mexico and the United States. But locating any such children has been difficult because of spotty reporting from Mexican government authorities.

But an email from the U.S. Border Patrol’s assistant chief, Eduardo Sanchez, obtained by The New York Times, makes it clear that such transfers have not only occurred, but that they are a clear violation of U.S. policy.

New York Times reports on Barr’s DOJ giving preferable treatment to a Turkish bank.

Election 2020

The Supreme Court ruled that Wisconsin cannot extend the deadline for receiving ballots from November 3 to November 6. The case was decided by the 5 conservative justices. The argument seems to be that they don’t want single judges–a federal appeals court judge in this case–changing election rules while the election is ongoing. Gorsuch: “No one doubts that conducting a national election amid a pandemic poses serious challenges. But none of that means individual judges may improvise with their own election rules in place of those the people’s representatives have adopted.”

Last week the court deadlocked, with Roberts on the liberal side, on a similar case in Pennsylvania. Roberts explains the distinction: “While the Pennsylvania applications implicated the authority of state courts to apply their own constitutions to election regulations, this case involves federal intrusion on state lawmaking processes. Different bodies of law and different precedents govern these two situations and require, in these particular circumstances, that we allow the modification of election rules in Pennsylvania but not Wisconsin.” Kavanaugh’s portions of the rulings are raising eyebrows.

Edsall in the Times: The reality is that in order to remain competitive, the party has been forced to adopt policies and strategies designed to restrict and constrain the majority electorate: voter suppression, gerrymandering, dependence on an Electoral College that favors small, rural states, and legislation designed to weaken and defund the labor movement.

In this context, it’s not a surprise that Trump and his partisan allies would be guided by an “anti-democracy attitude” that “has so taken hold that it could actually undo a presidential election.” What is more surprising is that it possibly could succeed.

The Supreme Court ruled Wednesday to allow the extension of the deadline for return of ballots.

Examples of voter suppression measures in Pennsylvania.

Frum writes this week: We are hearing louder and louder voices on the Republican side questioning whether universal voting rights should even theoretically be guaranteed by the American constitutional system…. The U.S. Constitution in many ways protects minorities against majorities. In the Trump era, we see instead politicians like Lee trying to pretend that minorities are majorities—and to grab the powers that legitimately belong to majorities away from them.

That’s the thing that needs to stop. That’s the thing that needs to change. And if Trump and his allies seem in these final days to act more frantically, more abusively, than usual, perhaps it is because they sense that the change is coming.

Closing Arguments & Predictions:

Tom Nichols on Never Trumpers: I believe that if all of us had caved, Trump would now be much closer to victory, not just at the polls, but over the Constitution itself. Many of us instead held firm and made the case for democracy and the rule of law from the right flank against our own tribe…. when Trump is gone (whether after this election or in 2024), I will continue to oppose everyone who had anything to do with inflicting this scar on American history, long after the members of the Trump family are finally bankrupt, in rehab, in jail, or living in seclusion in Manhattan among the neighbors who already despise them.

Current and former Trump Administration officials reach out to Ron Suskind to share their concerns anonymously: They are worried that the president could use the power of the government — the one they all serve or served within — to keep himself in office or to create favorable terms for negotiating his exit from the White House. Like many other experts inside and outside the government, they are also concerned about foreign adversaries using the internet to sow chaos, exacerbate divisions and undermine our democratic process….
They are loath to give up too many precise details, but it’s not hard to speculate from what we already know. Disruption would most likely begin on Election Day morning somewhere on the East Coast, where polls open first. Miami and Philadelphia (already convulsed this week after another police shooting), in big swing states, would be likely locations. It could be anything, maybe violent, maybe not, started by anyone, or something planned and executed by any number of organizations, almost all of them on the right fringe, many adoring of Mr. Trump. The options are vast and test the imagination.

The F.B.I., meanwhile, is bracing for huge challenges. “We are all-hands-on-deck for the foreseeable future,” the F.B.I. official I mentioned earlier told me. “We’ve been talking to our state and local counterparts and gearing up for the expectation that it’s going to be a significant law-enforcement challenge for probably weeks or months,” this official said. “It feels pretty terrifying.”

Echoing this, Trump said on a rally on Saturday: “We’re going to be waiting. Nov. 3 is going to come and go, and we’re not going to know. And you’re going to have bedlam in our country.”

—

Trump’s Approval: 44.2.%

COVID Cases / Deaths: 9024298 / 229109

The Barrett confirmation hearings began on Monday. It was over in the judiciary committee by Thursday. All Democrat boycotted the final vote.

The FBI announced that Iran was behind a series of election interference emails sent to Democrats.

Election 2020

Early voting started in many states this this week and there were a lot of stories about long lines at least during the first days.

Zoe Tillman of Buzfeed news covered a judge dissent in a voting access case this week: Judge Karen Nelson Moore of the US Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit wrote a scathing dissent in a case about how Tennessee handles absentee voting — she disagreed with her two colleagues in the majority who rejected a challenge to the state’s signature match rules for mail-in ballots. But Moore’s dissent went further, criticizing judges across the US who have sided with states seeking to limit mail-in voting this year.
“Hiding behind closed courthouse doors does not change the fact that ruling by ruling, many courts are chipping away at votes that ought to be counted. It is a disgrace to the federal courts’ foundational role in ensuring democracy’s function, and a betrayal to the persons that wish to participate in it fully,” Moore wrote.

New York Times on the same issue: The Texas case is one of at least eight major election disputes around the country in which Federal District Court judges sided with civil rights groups and Democrats in voting cases only to be stayed by the federal appeals courts, whose ranks Mr. Trump has done more to populate than any president in more than 40 years.

Rudy Giuliani perpetrated a bizarre hack-and-leak scheme this week about supposedly stolen emails of Hunter Biden. The most interesting thing is that Twitter and Facebook took strong moves to keep the Russia-backed story from spreading on their sites.

At a Biden Town Hall on ABC, the moderator asked: Mr. Vice President, if you lose, what will that say to you about where America is today?

BIDEN: Well, it could say that I’m a lousy candidate, and I didn’t do a good job. But I think — I hope that it doesn’t say that we are as racially, ethnically, and religiously at odds with one another as it appears the President wants us to be. Usually, you know, the President, in my view, with all due respect, it’s been divide and conquer, the way he does better if he splits us and where there’s division.

And I think people need hope. I think — look, George, I’ve never been more optimistic of the prospects for this country than I am today. And I really mean that. I think the people are ready. They understand what’s at stake. And it’s not about Democrat or Republican.

—

Trump’s Job Approval: 42.8%

COVID Cases/Deaths: 802,8332 / 217,918